Why Have Bills vs. Dolphins Odds Changed So Drastically?

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

A Sunday night showdown in Week 18 will decide the fate of the AFC playoff picture — and could see the Bills, perhaps the hottest team in the NFL — miss the playoffs altogether.

And while ordinarily one might expect the home team to be favored in a matchup between two squads with similar, season-long underlying metrics, it's the Bills on the road that sit as -3, roughly -167 favorites across the betting ecosystem as of Tuesday.

That's despite opening as +1.5, +102 underdogs at bet365 before Week 17's games — a substantial 4.5-point move.

So why did the line change so drastically?

First and most importantly, market setters changed their tone after witnessing the Dolphins allow 56 points to the Ravens in by far the worst defensive performance of the week, according to expected points added per play (EPA/play).

The Dolphins permitted an absurd .54 expected points added per play, a week after posting the seventh-worst defensive game vs. the Cowboys despite winning that contest by the skin of their teeth. In fact, over the last month, the Dolphins rank No. 24 in the league defensively, behind the Titans, Panthers, Commanders and a host of other bad defensive teams.

In conjunction, the Dolphins offense hasn't played up to snuff, either. Miami ranks just No. 16 in offensive EPA/play over the last month, in line with the likes of the Saints and Steelers. Granted, the Dolphins played two good defenses in the Ravens and Cowboys — but those two squads haven't been as elite as the Bills unit has been since the start of December.

Buffalo is tied with Cleveland with the fourth-best defense in the NFL since Dec. 1. On pass plays, the Bills are No. 1 in the NFL over the last month. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank No. 10 in overall defense over that same timeframe and the Cowboys rank No. 26.

So, there's been a major discrepancy between how the Dolphins and Bills have played over the last month. But perhaps half of the calculus is contingent on an injury the Dolphins suffered during garbage time last week against the Ravens.

Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb tore his ACL deep into the fourth quarter, when he likely shouldn't have been playing with Miami down 49-19.

On Black Friday, the Dolphins' best pass rusher in Jaelen Phillips went down with a torn Achilles. Now, the team's next-best pass rusher is out for the year, too.

This line may have moved even more in the Bills' favor if not for Josh Allen's recent struggles at quarterback. The one-time MVP favorite — buoyed by his defense — has skirted by with the 20th-best EPA/play among quarterbacks over the Bills' four game winning streak. In a blowout victory over the Cowboys, he threw the ball just 15 times for 94 yards. Over the last two weeks, Allen has averaged just 203 passing yards with 1 total TD pass and two picks.

A key problem for Allen the last two weeks has been time in the pocket. With two top pass rushers out of the fold, a Dolphins defense that's looked incredibly shaky adds yet another variable into the mix: a hungry Josh Allen who has plenty of time to sit back and work through his progressions.