The Buffalo Sabres (1-1-0) and Boston Bruins (1-1-0) meet in Game 3 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston, Mass. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Bruins are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+114o / -140u). The Bruins are a -111 favorite to win outright, while the Sabres are -108 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sabres vs. Bruins predictions and NHL picks.
Sabres vs. Bruins Odds, Pick
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -260 | 6.5 114o / -140u | -108 |
| Bruins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 6.5 114o / -140u | -111 |
- Sabres vs. Bruins Spread: Sabres +1.5 (-260), Bruins -1.5 (+205)
- Sabres vs. Bruins Over/Under: 6.5 (+114o / -140u)
- Sabres vs. Bruins Moneyline: Sabres -108, Bruins -111
Sabres vs. Bruins Preview
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is fortunate not to be down 0-2 in this series.
The Sabres have held the lead for just 3:24 total through two games, and their offensive numbers look a bit inflated as a result of chasing a 2-0 deficit in the third period of Game 1 and a 4-0 deficit in the third of Game 2.
That said, it isn't purely a byproduct of a few late, desperate efforts. Buffalo posted a 54.75 xGF% and 8.53 xGF while outshooting Boston 73-47.
The biggest concern right now is in net. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen got the hook in Game 2 after allowing four goals through just over two periods. He was rolling heading into the playoffs with a +6.4 GSAx rating and .921 SV% across his final 10 regular-season games, but that level of play hasn’t carried over so far.
Alex Lyon came on in relief and stopped all seven shots he faced. He gave up 13 goals across his last three starts of the regular season, but was solid throughout the year with a +12.6 GSAx rating.
No starter has been announced, and it's a major question head coach Lindy Ruff will have to answer before puck drop.
Boston Bruins
I've been really impressed with how Boston has handled Buffalo's speed and scoring ability.
The Bruins ranked in the top five in high-danger chances allowed this season, but they controlled large stretches of the first two games, keeping the Sabres off the scoresheet until late in the third period both times.
It hasn't all been Jeremy Swayman, either. Boston's defensive structure has limited those chances enough to build leads, and Buffalo has looked lost at times trying to solve it outside of a few frantic pushes to climb back into the game.
The 5-on-5 offense has looked sharp as well, with a 53.81 xGF%. Boston was a tricky team to judge during the regular season due to a +20.43 GFAx mark, but the eye test suggests they're in a good spot right now, and even more so if they can sustain pressure during Buffalo's offensive spurts.
In net, Swayman has been as advertised in this series, posting a .932 SV% and +2.1 GSAx. With all the question marks on the other side, there's no such uncertainty in Boston's crease, which is a nice edge to have at the most important position.
Sabres vs. Bruins Prediction
For me, this comes down to two factors: Boston's ability to limit quality chances and its massive advantage in goal with Swayman.
The Bruins are doing an excellent job limiting quality looks, holding Buffalo to just six high-danger chances last game, and completely shutting down the power play. The Sabres are now 0-for-9 in this series and 0 for their last 31 with the man advantage.
On the other end, Luukkonen owns an abysmal .821 SV% thus far, and giving Lyon a look could go any number of ways.
I’ll admit, Buffalo has earned respect on the road, going 22-4-2 since December 9 during its climb out of the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but Boston counters with the second-best home record in the league at 29-11-1.
All things considered, I like the Bruins to take care of business.
Pick: Bruins Moneyline (-111, FanDuel)
