USA and Latvia meet in the preliminary round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 3:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
USA is favored by 3.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-118o / -106u). USA is a -2858 favorite to win outright, while Latvia is +1300 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my USA vs Latvia predictions and Olympics picks.
USA vs. Latvia Odds, Pick
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -154 | 6.5 -118o / -106u | -2858 |
| Latvia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 +130 | 6.5 -118o / -106u | +1300 |
- USA vs. Latvia Spread: USA -3.5 (-154), Latvia +3.5 (+130)
- USA vs. Latvia Over/Under: 6.5 (-118o / -106u)
- USA vs. Latvia Moneyline: USA -2858, Latvia +1300
USA vs. Latvia Preview
USA
After the USA nearly pulled out the gold medal last season in the 4 Nations Face-Off, it felt like the Olympic gold wasn’t too far away for the stars and stripes.
However, it shouldn’t be understated how much USA GM Bill Guerin fumbled the bag on building this roster.
What the Americans had a hard time doing in the 4 Nations was evenly spreading the wealth in terms of goal scoring. Primarily, goal scoring was dominated by Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, as well as Jake Guentzel.
There has been some exceptional play on the blue line, though, with Zach Werenski leading the team in points, as well as Brock Faber.
But had it not been for elite goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck, I’m not so sure USA would’ve done as well as it did last season.
So, what was the answer for the lack of goal scoring? Omit Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield – two of the NHL’s top goal scorers – from the team. Don’t get me started.
Despite missing critical pieces, it’s not out of the question to determine the Americans as a powerhouse in this tournament, because it’s hard to find a more dominant top-six.
Jack Eichel will center both Tkachuks, while Auston Matthews centers Matt Boldy and Guentzel – all three of whom are elite goal scorers. Matthews didn’t get to light the lamp at all during the 4 Nations, so I anticipate that will change. The problem is, El Capitan has only scored one goal in his previous eight games.
In terms of goaltending, you don’t get better options than Hellebuyck, who was critical in helping the Americans get as far as they did. He was a total beauty, posting a .932 SV%, but he’s played a ton of hockey over the years. So, we’ve started to see a little slippage this season while playing for the Winnipeg Jets with a 7.2 GSAx and a .900 SV% – a career low.
Latvia
Latvia is definitely in that bottom tier of nations in this tournament, but don’t rule the Latvians out just yet.
There are a lot more NHL players hailing from Latvia than you think, with Zemgus Girgensons, Sandis Vilmanis, Teddy Blueger, Uvis Balinskis, and goaltenders Arturs Silovs and Elvis Merzlikins.
Granted, none of these players are superstars, and they’re more like solid depth guys, but both Blueger and Balinskis each have a few Stanley Cups to their name and Silovs has big game experience in the NHL Playoffs.
Outside of the usual suspects, Eduard Tralmaks is a top scorer in the AHL and Rudolfs Balcers enjoyed a decent NHL career before heading back to Europe.
Expect a lot of two-way play here from the Latvians, as Girgensons has been one of the better two-way players in the NHL for the better part of a decade.
Until I’m proven completely wrong, I would think that Silovs gets the start here. Silovs is not a bad goaltender whatsoever, and I think he has a high ceiling if the defense puts him in a decent position to thrive.
Playing for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Silovs has split starts and has posted an .896 SV% in 26 games, along with a 2.1 GSAx over his last 10 games.
I’ve always been a strong critic of his partner, Merzlikins, who is one of the more volatile netminders in the league, which is why I tend to lean toward Silovs.
USA vs. Latvia Prediction
After seeing how the Olympic opener turned out with Slovakia upsetting Finland and Italy hanging in with Sweden, it’s only natural for the mind to wander.
Latvia is better than most believe, with a handful of solid NHLers and NHL goaltending, and it has a history of shining in the Olympics.
Perhaps you remember in 2014 at Sochi when Latvia took Canada down to the wire and nearly pulled out a win.
I just don’t foresee a similar surge from Latvia. Why? Because two of the netminders that got lit up were Juuse Saros, who’s historically bad in international play, and Filip Gustavsson, who’s been a wild card this season.
With the Latvians walking into Hellebuyck, that poses a significant issue. Hellebuyck hasn’t been great this season, but that’s because his defense has held him out to dry. At least this time, he has a solid defensive corps in front of him.
So, with this total being 6.5, I’m going to err on the under here. I don’t foresee Hellebuyck cracking, and I think Silovs can help prevent this from being a total disaster.
If it’s Merzlikins in net, you can count on the over.
Pick: Under 6.5 if Silovs starts | Over 6.5 if Merzlikins starts
