The Montreal Canadiens (48-23-10) and Philadelphia Flyers (41-27-12) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Canadiens are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+110o / -130u). The Canadiens are a -192 favorite to win outright, while the Flyers are +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Flyers predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Flyers Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 6.5 110o / -130u | -192 |
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 6.5 110o / -130u | +160 |
- Canadiens vs. Flyers Spread: Canadiens -1.5 (+136), Flyers +1.5 (-162)
- Canadiens vs. Flyers Over/Under: 6.5 (+110o / -130u)
- Canadiens vs. Flyers Moneyline: Canadiens -192, Flyers +160
Canadiens vs. Flyers Polymarket Odds
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Current odds: CAN 55% · FLY 46% · NHL
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Canadiens vs. Flyers Preview
Montreal Canadiens
With Buffalo clinching the Atlantic Division on Monday, Montreal is locked into a first-round matchup with Tampa Bay. Home ice is still up for grabs, though, with the Lightning facing the Rangers tomorrow in their season finale, so this game still carries some weight.
The Canadiens have turned things around considerably down the stretch, and the goaltending deserves most of the credit. After parting ways with goalie coach Eric Raymond in late January, the Dobes, Montembeault, and Fowler combination was sitting at a combined .884 SV%, good for 28th in the league.
Since then, Jakub Dobes has taken over the majority share of the crease and been one of the better goalies in the league over the last 20 games, posting a league-leading +21.2 GSAx and .916 SV%.
Over that same stretch, Montreal ranks 19th in GF/60 and 30th in xGA/60, which puts into perspective just how desperate Montreal is for reliable goaltending.
There has been some noise around Samuel Montembeault's future in Montreal, with Jacob Fowler now handling backup duties. It is a notable fall for a goaltender who was the clear-cut starter a year ago and made Team Canada's Four Nations roster on the back of a +24.6 GSAx and .902 SV%.
Fowler, for his part, has been a more than solid complement to Dobes, posting a +7.1 GSAx and .908 SV% in his last 20 games. With Fowler getting the nod last game, tonight's starter likely comes down to how aggressively Montreal wants to chase home ice. If that is the priority, Dobes would be the obvious choice.
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia clinched a playoff berth last night, so tonight could be a spot where the Flyers manage their roster and give some regulars a chance to rest before the postseason.
Over their last 10 games, the Flyers are 7-3-0 and lead the league in expected goal share (58.82%) and xGA/60 (2.36).
Porter Martone deserves a lot of credit for the recent surge. The sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft is tied for the team lead in points through his first eight NHL games, with three goals and five assists, skating primarily with Travis Konecny and Christian Dvorak. Add Trevor Zegras and Owen Tippett, and Philadelphia suddenly has something resembling a functional top six.
The Flyers rank 22nd in GF/60 (2.85) and 25th in xGF/60 (2.89) on the season, but since Martone arrived, those numbers have jumped to 3.57 GF/60 and 3.40 xGF/60, along with an impressive 61.33% expected goal share when he’s on the ice. Eight games isn’t a large sample, but the numbers back up what you see when watching the Flyers with him in the lineup.
In net, Dan Vladar has been a savior for Philly all season, posting a +13.8 GSAx and a .906 SV%. After starting last night and helping clinch a playoff berth, he will almost certainly sit this one out, meaning Samuel Ersson gets the call.
Ersson has struggled for most of the year, ranking near the bottom of the league with a -17.3 GSAx and an .867 SV%. His last start came on April 2 against Detroit, where he stopped just 15 of 19 shots in a 4-2 loss.
That said, Ersson did have a strong stretch out of the Olympic break, going 5-0-0 in his first six appearances with a 1.46 GAA and a .933 SV%.
Canadiens vs. Flyers Prediction
For me, this one simply comes down to motivation. The Flyers locked up the third spot in the Atlantic last night, and with nothing left to play for in the standings, tonight has all the makings of a maintenance game.
On the other hand, the Canadiens have an outside shot at home ice if the right results fall their way, with Tampa Bay still needing to play tomorrow. Given how much of an advantage the Bell Centre crowd provides, I’d imagine home ice will be a priority even though they have one of the best road records this season at 24-8-8.
Over their last 20 games, the Canadiens have gone 15-5-0, and with a few things still on the line, I expect them to treat this like a meaningful game.
I grabbed the moneyline early at -140, but it has since moved closer to -192. At that price, the 60-minute line is the better play.
Pick: Canadiens 3-Way Moneyline (-110)
