Avalanche vs Stars Game 1 Prediction: NHL Odds, Preview, Pick (Tuesday, May 7)
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Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction
| Avalanche Odds | +105 |
| Stars Odds | -126 |
| Over / Under | 6 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Avalanche vs. Stars odds for Game 1 on Tuesday, May 7 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
As the Dallas Stars pursued the top spot in the Western Conference this season, they emphasized they wanted home-ice advantage for any Game 7 they might face. That strategy paid off in Round 1, when they rallied from an 0-2 deficit to dethrone the defending champions from Vegas.
Their next challenge won't be any easier — hosting the 2022 Stanley Cup champions, who finished just six points behind them and also held the edge in the regular-season series.
In five previous playoff meetings, the Stars hold a 3-2 series edge over Colorado. Most recently, they prevailed in overtime of Game 7 in the second round of the 2020 playoff bubble in Edmonton — although clinching goal-scorer Joel Kiviranta has now switched sides and is part of the Avalanche roster.
Both these teams bring plenty of firepower and played high-scoring games during the season. Expect Game 1 to be more of a chess match between two elite squads.
Goaltending looked like it was going to be a serious issue for the Avs when they opened their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets with a 7-6 loss. But coach Jared Bednar went back to Alexandar Georgiev in Game 2, and was rewarded for his faith. The Bulgarian allowed just eight goals over the next four games and Colorado got its offense on track, putting 22 pucks into the Jets' net and quickly ending Winnipeg's season.
So Georgiev and the Avs will have had a full week's rest when they get back to business in Dallas on Tuesday. Sometimes, that can leave a team a bit rusty to start, and Colorado does have a tendency toward sloppy play following days off.
The lopsided nature of their first-round series gave Colorado an impressive expected goals share of 58.14% at 5-on-5. Their power play was also 6-for-16 against Winnipeg. Percentage-wise, a penalty kill of 10-for-13 wasn't great, but Colorado played disciplined hockey and didn't take many penalties.
Not surprisingly, the Avalanche's best players were their best players against the Jets. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar all put up identical 2-7-9 stat lines. And after missing most of last year's first-round loss to Seattle, Valeri Nichushkin has returned in a big way, with two game-winning goals in Round 1.
Lineup-wise, Jonathan Drouin, Gabriel Landeskog and Logan O'Connor remain out, and Kiviranta is listed as day-to-day after missing the last two games of Round 1 with a lower-body issue. With the Colorado Eagles' AHL season now over, depth forward Chris Wagner could draw into the bottom-six in place of a less experienced player like Nikolai Kovalenko.
There were also questions about the Stars' goaltending when they dropped the first two games of their series against Vegas by a combined total of 7-4. But even in Game 2, Jake Oettinger was getting dialed in. And by the time the Stars advanced, he was down to a 1.95 goals-against average, .925 save percentage and 2.5 goals saved above expected.
And while its series against Vegas came down to a single goal in Game 7, Dallas deserved to win based on the underlying numbers. The Stars controlled 58.56% of expected goals at 5-on-5, tops in the first round. Their power play was 4-for-14 — solid, but not quite as strong as Colorado — and their penalty kill was about the same, at 3-for-12.
As deep as Dallas' lineup is, the unquestioned star of Round 1 was 20-year-old Wyatt Johnston. Bumped up to the top line, he led the way with four goals and three assists, including the overtime winner in Game 3 for the Stars' first win of the series.
On the injury front, Mason Marchment and Jani Hakanpaa remain sidelined but are listed as day-to-day. Coach Peter DeBoer said Monday he's hopeful that both could return in this series.
Avalanche vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
Though the Stars are coming off a hard-fought series and will play Game 1 after just one day's rest, they opened as moneyline favorites at -132.
That line has shifted a bit, as low as -121 at BetRivers as of Monday night. But the oddsmakers aren't playing much respect to a Colorado team that steamrolled its opponent in Round 1 — and that held a 3-1 edge in the season series against Dallas, with one of those wins coming in overtime.
But this is a case where the regular-season script probably won't carry over. Three of those games hit the over by a significant margin, and the fourth was a 5-1 win for the Avs. Now that playoff time has arrived and both teams have had some time to get their systems dialed in, expect the defense to get much tighter.
As both sides look to establish early dominance, the best bet for Game 1 is the total, with less than six goals scored.
Pick: Under 6 (+102 at DraftKings | Play down to -110)
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