NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs (Monday, October 16)

Monday, Oct. 16

7 p.m. ET

NBCSCH

Blackhawks Odds	+265
Maple Leafs Odds	-335
Over / Under	6.5 -138 / +112

Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NHL odds here.

The Connor Bedard introduction tour continues with another classic Original Six matchup, this time against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday night.

This is the third consecutive Original Six meeting for his Chicago Blackhawks after consecutive losses to the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens.

Worse, this is Chicago's fourth straight road game as the Hawks continue their five-game road trip to open the season.

All signs point toward a Toronto victory, and that's reflected in the betting price for Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs tonight.

They may have landed the biggest fish in the NHL Draft, but otherwise, not much has changed for the Blackhawks.

Chicago still produces some of the most underwhelming metrics in the league, which has been compounded by their challenging schedule to open the year.

The Hawks have yet to out-chance an opponent in high-danger chances, giving up 29 quality opportunities through the first three games. Worse, they don't have the offensive systems in place to offset those defensive shortcomings.

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Chicago attempted 10 high-danger chances in the season-opener, falling to eight against the B's and two last time out against the Habs. Unfortunately, that standard isn't going to improve against the Maple Leafs.

Still, the Blackhawks have been buoyed by above-average goaltending thus far.

Petr Mrazek has started two of the three games and is the projected starter on Monday night. The veteran netminder has stopped 71 of 76 shots faced for an impressive 93.4% save percentage and 2.54 goals against average.

Mrazek will be hung out to dry at times this season, but he's been up to the challenge early this 2023-24 season.

Once again, the Maple Leafs are positioned as one of the best teams in the NHL.

Toronto shook off the cobwebs with a season-opening come-from-behind victory over the Canadiens, following that up with a more convincing win against the Minnesota Wild.

However, the Maple Leafs haven't looked strong analytically, instead relying on their skilled players to make the most of their opportunities rather than outplaying their opponents from start to finish.

Like Chicago, the Leafs have yet to out-chance their opponents in high-danger chances. Toronto attempted just seven such opportunities against the Habs, giving up nine quality chances against. Similarly, they matched the Wild in that category on Saturday night, with both teams recording 12 high-danger chances.

The difference has been Toronto's ability to capitalize on their limited opportunities; however, that's an unsustainable way of winning games.

Through two games, the Maple Leafs have recorded 12 goals on 75 shots for an untenable 16.0% shooting percentage. Moreover, five of those tallies have come on special teams, also pointing toward unsustainable play.

The hockey season is a grind, and hot streaks come and go; it's possible the Leafs open the season on a bit of a heater, but it's not probable.

The focus for Sheldon Keefe and the Maple Leafs should be getting their analytics in order. Toronto is off to a chaotic start, and they'll need to fine-tune their systems if they want to make a run at a division title.

They'll have a chance to regulate that play against an inferior Blackhawks squad tonight.

Nevertheless, Mrazek has kept the Hawks in games to start the season and could have revenge on his mind against one of his former clubs. He's come up with big save after big save, which should be enough to limit a regression-bound Leafs squad.

Bettors are right for believing in Toronto, but this game could be closer than expected.

One potential angle is backing Chicago on the puck line at plus money, but our preferred play is taking the under of 6.5 (+104 as of this writing) in what should be a tighter-than-expected affair.