Blues vs Coyotes: NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction (Saturday, December 2)
Zac BonDurant/Getty Images. Pictured: Lawson Crouse #67 and Nick Bjugstad #17 of the of the Arizona Coyotes
Blues vs. Coyotes Odds
| Blues Odds | +110 |
| Coyotes Odds | -132 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -114 / -104 |
Two Central Division foes renew acquaintances on Saturday night when the Arizona Coyotes host the St. Louis Blues.
These teams have already met three times this season with St. Louis taking the last two.
The Blues have enjoyed some success lately, winning four of their past six; however, those achievements are contraindicated in their underlying metrics. Moreover, that's analogous to the Blues' season as a whole; they've outplayed their metrics en route to a 12-9-1 record.
Conversely, the Coyotes have won three in a row with improved analytics validating those victories. They enter Saturday's intra-divisional battle as short home favorites, priced in the -120 range as of this writing.
However, our analysis shows that the price is too short in what should be a one-sided affair.
Here's my Blues vs. Coyotes prediction and betting angle for the game.
Again, this season, the Blues rate as one of the worst analytics teams in the league.
St. Louis sits third-last in expected goals-for percentage with a 44.3% Corsi rating and the second-most high-danger chances allowed. Those deficiencies are plainly illustrated over the Blues' recent sample, compounded by an intense schedule over the past few weeks.
As noted, St. Louis is not known for its defensive zone coverage. The Blues are consistently outplayed in their own end, giving up 11 or more high-danger chances in all but five of their previous 16 contests.
That sample stretches most of their season, highlighting the Blues' inability to get anything right in their own end. Over that 16-game span, opponents are peppering St. Louis netminders with 11.7 high-danger and 26.5 scoring opportunities.
Adding a new wrinkle to the underwhelming play is a condensed travel schedule that has taken St. Louis across the country. The Blues spent some time on the West Coast before returning home for a game, and then embarking to Chicago, Minnesota, home and now back to Arizona.
That's a nine-game span that has seen the Blues visit seven different barns. After Saturday, they will have played just as many games in Arizona as they have at home over the last three weeks.
The Blues have outlasted their metrics, and we're expecting regression to impact their probability of success over their coming games, particularly when we factor in their daunting travel schedule.
The Coyotes aren't the model analytics team of the NHL, but they do have a leg up on the Blues.
Arizona sits almost 10 spots higher than St. Louis in expected goals-for rating, compiling a 48.0% benchmark, compared to the Blues' mark of 45.0%. Moreover, we've seen the Desert Dogs take on a more assertive persona on the ice lately, furthering their cause as the hosts on Saturday night.
Arizona has seen a slight uptick in offensive production. The Coyotes have attempted nine or more high-danger chances in three of their last four, dragging their season-long average up to 8.7.
This has had a noticeable impact on their metrics.
First, the Coyotes are scoring more, tallying 14 goals over the four-game sample.
Second, they are tilting the ice in their favor. Arizona has posted expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in two of those games, securing wins in three straight.
Additionally, the Coyotes are insulated within their friendly confines. They've recorded 12 goals over their last three home games with 10 of those coming at 5-on-5.
Their production supports sustained output with the Coyotes totaling 31 high-danger and 67 scoring opportunities over that modest three-game sample.
Arizona is starting to turn a corner with its metrics, and the Blues don't have the structure to stop them.
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Blues vs. Coyotes
Betting Pick & Prediction
When these teams met last week, the Coyotes out-chanced the Blues 13-9 in high-danger chances, resulting in a 50.5% expected goals-for rating.
Further, Arizona out-scored their divisional foes 5-4 at 5-on-5, which still wasn't enough to help them secure the win.
We're anticipating a similar effort from the Coyotes on home ice, albeit with a different result. The Blues have exhausted their puck luck and can't continue to get outplayed and walk away victorious.
Arizona should have no problem walking away with this one more easily than the betting price implies. The Coyotes moneyline is good up to -140.
Pick: Coyotes (-120 at FanDuel)
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