NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs. Stars

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes vs. Stars article feature image

Sam Hodde/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars

  • The Coyotes vs. Stars matchup on Wednesday night features two goaltenders with impressive stats.
  • However, the Stars' Jake Oettinger is more likely to sustain his success in front of the net.
  • It's one reason Tony Sartori is backing the big favorites in the game, as he details below.

Coyotes vs. Stars Odds

Coyotes Odds+310
Stars Odds-385
Over/Under6 (+102 / -121)
Time8:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

In perhaps the most lopsided contest on Wednesday's NHL slate, the first-place Dallas Stars host the seventh-place Arizona Coyotes in a Central Division tilt.

Dominating this matchup over the last couple of seasons, Dallas has won six of the last eight meetings between these two clubs with an average winning margin of 2.7 goals.

Here's a look at the odds, as well as our betting pick and prediction for Coyotes vs. Stars.

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An (Unsustainable) Bright Spot for Arizona Coyotes

After losing two of their last three games, the Arizona Coyotes enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back. Since starting goaltender Karel Vejmelka got the nod last night against the Chicago Blackhawks, backup goaltender Connor Ingram is slated to start between the pipes for Arizona on Wednesday.

While Ingram's numbers are a tad better than one would expect, it is due to a tremendous – and unsustainable – stretch of goaltending between late January and early February. Based on his underlying metrics, regression is likely for the backup netminder.

If he qualified, Ingram would rank 21st among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. This regression started to hit in his last outing against the Nashville Predators, a game in which Ingram surrendered six goals on 34 shots for a mere .824 save percentage (SV%) en route to a 6-2 loss.

In front of Ingram is one of the worst teams in hockey. At 5-on-5, the Yotes rank 30th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

A Sustainable Bright Spot for Dallas Stars

Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars are a better team across the board, which is why they are such heavy favorites in this matchup.

At 5-on-5, the Stars rank 16th in the league in xGF/60 and 10th in xGA/60.

Backing up this strong two-way team is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who is putting together yet another remarkable campaign. Through 45 appearances in the crease, he is 24-8-10 with a .923 SV% and 2.30 goals against average (GAA).

There is no doubt that the 24-year-old will collect a few Vezina Trophies down the line, and his consistently great play is already developing.

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as Oettinger ranks eighth among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

Coyotes vs. Stars Pick

Oettinger and Ingram went head-to-head back on Jan. 21, a game in which Oettinger pitched a shutout en route to Dallas' dominating 4-0 victory at American Airlines Center.

With the better offense, defense, coach, special teams and goaltender, there is no reason to believe that the Stars will not coast to yet another easy victory over the lowly Coyotes.

Through two career starts against Dallas, Ingram is 0-2 with a troubling .857 SV% and 5.91 GAA. The Stars won each of those games by at least a four-goal margin.

Meanwhile, through two career outings against the Yotes, Oettinger boasts an absurd .966 SV% and 1.01 GAA.

Pick: Stars -1.5 (-137 at BetRivers) | Play to -150

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