NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs Rangers (Monday, February 12)
Rich Graessle/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Rangers celebrate at Madison Square Garden
Flames vs. Rangers Odds
| Flames Odds | +135 |
| Rangers Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 6 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Calgary Flames vs. New York Rangers on Monday, February 12 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Tonight's NHL faceoff between the Flames and Rangers is a clash of two teams at different points in their respective seasons.
The Flames (25-22-5) sit three points out of the final wild-card position and have played more games than both current wild-card teams.
The Rangers (33-16-3) sit atop the Metropolitan Division with a four-point cushion at this point. As Calgary brings its fiery offensive play to New York’s fortress at Madison Square Garden, advanced metrics will be key in predicting the outcome.
This will be a compelling matchup tonight, and this is my Flames vs. Rangers prediction and pick.
The Flames have been torching their way through the second half of the season with an offensive flair that's reflected in their xG% and Corsi stats, outperforming league averages in a very short sample size.
Calgary's offense, while active in shot attempts as shown by their 11th rank in Corsi for (CF), struggles with efficiency, ranking 20th in xG for and 22nd in high danger chances for (HDCF).
This discrepancy points to a team that manages to keep the puck and shoot but fails to convert these efforts into consistent, high-quality scoring chances. The Flames’ power play has been a dull spot (26th in the league), though, and should be thwarted by the Rangers’ fifth-ranked penalty kill if they manage to draw penalties in this matchup.
On the defensive end, the Flames have been decent, relying heavily on their elite starting goaltender in Jacob Markstrom. Calgary's defensive metrics rankings in Corsi Against (21st), xG Against (20th), and high danger chances against (20th) highlight a team that often finds itself on its back foot.
Markstrom, ranking fourth in goals saved above expected and eighth in save percentage above expected this year, will have a pivotal role in tonight's game. His ability to step up and counter the Rangers' offensive attempts could be the difference-maker, especially in a game that could be decided by goaltending.
The New York Rangers have been formidable opponents, especially on home ice (17-7).
New York is positioned in the middle of the pack offensively, ranking 16th in CF and 13th in both xGF and HDCF. These statistics suggest a team that's capable of generating scoring opportunities but not dominating possession or consistently creating the highest-quality chances.
The key for the Rangers tonight will be to capitalize on their ability to create moderately high-danger opportunities against a Flames’ defense that has shown vulnerabilities.
On the other end of the ice, the Rangers have been anchored by a stingy defense, with 2.79 goals allowed average (eighth) in addition to limiting shots on goal (sixth) this season that ranks among the league's elite. Their defense has been effective in limiting HDCF against, though there have been occasional lapses that they'll need to shore up.
The Rangers' penalty kill has been aggressive and successful, a crucial factor to maintain against a Flames team that fails to thrive with the man advantage.
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Flames vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although the Flames look like a revamped team out of the All-Star break, the Rangers' defensive resilience plus home ice show me the betting value lies with the Rangers moneyline at -165 juice.
I do believe this will be a rather low-scoring matchup due to Markstrom’s elite goaltending, which removes the puck line from the equation for me.
Despite the Rangers' middling offensive rankings, their performance in creating moderately high-danger opportunities aligns well against the Flames' defensive inefficiencies. Furthermore, if starting goalie Igor Shesterkin can outperform his season statistics and capitalize on the Flames' struggles to convert shot attempts into goals, the Rangers have a solid chance to secure a win.
Bettors should look at the Rangers' ability to exploit the Flames' defensive gaps and the potential for a standout performance from their goaltender as key factors in making their decision. I expect a regression to the mean for the hot Calgary team after ripping off three in a row coming out of the All-Star break.
In a matchup that seems evenly poised on paper, the edge goes to the Rangers, who have the tools to capitalize on the Flames' inconsistencies. Take the Rangers ML -160 at bet365 (up to -165) and expect a 3-2 victory by New York.
Pick: Rangers ML (-160 at bet365)
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