NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Hurricanes vs Blues
Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Sebastian Aho #20 of the Carolina Hurricanes
Hurricanes vs. Blues Odds
| Hurricanes Odds | -196 |
| Blues Odds | +162 |
| Over / Under | 6.0 +100 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Carolina Hurricanes vs St. Louis Blues on Friday, April 12 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two teams very much in their respective playoff races take to the ice for a crucial inter-conference tilt in the Show Me State.
The Carolina Hurricanes are vying for the distinction of Metropolitan Division winner, sitting three points back of the New York Rangers with one game in hand.
Although they aren't competing for a division title, the St. Louis Blues still have a shot at a Western Conference wild-card spot. They sit three points back of the Vegas Golden Knights with three games left to play.
Consequently, neither team can afford a slip-up as they battle it out at Enterprise Center on Friday night.
Carolina has propelled itself back into the Metropolitan Division race on the strength of an 11-2-1 record over its last 14 games. Included in that is the three-game winning streak the Hurricanes are riding into tonight's affair.
Predictably, the Canes' successful run is grounded in solid analytics, supporting their sustainable path up the standings.
The Hurricanes have been one of the top analytics teams in the league, but that's even more pronounced more recently. Over their 14-game heater, the Canes have outplayed all but three of their opponents. Moreover, only twice have they posted an expected goals-for percentage below 49.6%. Cumulatively, that puts them at a 57.8% rating over that stretch, above their regular season average of 56.7%.
Still, we've seen the Hurricanes dial up the intensity more recently.
During its modest three-game winning streak, Carolina hasn't posted a game score below 61.4%. In total, their 64.3% expected goals-for rating over that stretch validates their current form and sustainable metrics.
Altogether, the Hurricanes are intensifying their performance as the season concludes, and there could be no stopping them in St. Louis.
The similarities between these clubs don't stop at their climbs up the standings.
Likewise, the Blues have been on a 10-3-2 run, winning two straight ahead of Friday's clash with the Canes. However, unlike their inter-conference counterparts, the Blues haven't experienced the same level of analytics success as the Hurricanes.
The Blues' 15-game sample takes us to approximately the same time as the Hurricanes, albeit with very different metrics. Over that stretch, St. Louis is sitting with a 49.2% expected goals-for rating, the 12th-worst in the league. Moreover, they've posted negative ratings in scoring and high-danger chances with a lackluster 47.7% Corsi rating.
Somehow, the Blues have accumulated the third-best points percentage in the league, though, sitting just behind the team they are facing on Friday night. Predictably, this has elevated their PDO above sustainable metrics, propping the Blues up at 1.024.
An underwhelming schedule is contributing to the Blues' inflated points percentage. Over the past couple of weeks, St. Louis has taken on the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, and San Jose Sharks twice.
They've been able to scrape by with ineffective performances against the worst teams in the league, but they won't be so lucky against the Hurricanes.
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Hurricanes vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
The St. Louis Blues are not as good as their current record implies. The playoff hopefuls have gotten by on the strength of a weak schedule while putting together mostly uninspired efforts.
Conversely, the Hurricanes' recent streak is substantiated by some of the best metrics in the game. Carolina has reserved its best performances for late in the season, and that could help them catch the Rangers for home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs.
Tonight's betting price warrants a play on the Hurricanes, but we would back them to -220.
Pick: Hurricanes (-196 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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