NHL Odds, Prediction: Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs Preview (March 16)
(Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) Pictured: Ilya Samsonov.
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs Odds
| Hurricanes Odds | -140 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 +105o / -125u |
Here's everything you need to know about Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs on Saturday, March 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
These two Eastern Conference teams have only met once this season, a low-scoring game Carolina won 3-2. Find out why I expect another low-scoring contest on Saturday as I make a Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs prediction.
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 17 of Carolina's past 21 games, a strong trend that is the product of multiple variables. First, the blue line has done a tremendous job of suppressing high danger scoring chances.
At 5-on-5, the Hurricanes rank first in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). They have also done an excellent job on special teams, ranking second in penalty kill percentage.
Backing up this defensively sound group is goaltender Frederik Andersen, who is slated to guard the cage in this matchup. Andersen has been terrific since returning to the lineup and is 7-1 on the campaign with a .913 SV% and a 2.19 GAA.
He has allowed two or fewer goals in six straight starts and is 5-1 with a commanding .938 SV% and a 1.49 GAA over that stretch. There were also five or fewer total goals scored in five of those six outings.
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Meanwhile, goaltender Ilya Samsonov is projected to start for Toronto. Samsonov's surface-level stats aren't very good this season, which is why I believer we're able to get Under 6 at plus money.
However, like Andersen, Samsonov has been seeing the puck extremely well of late. Over his past 15 starts, Samsonov is 13-2 with a .914 SV% and a 2.30 GAA. There were six or fewer total goals scored in eight of those 15 games.
The other variable allowing us to catch Under 6 at plus money is that Toronto possesses one of the league's best offenses.
However, forward Mitch Marner is expected to miss this game due to injury and he's a big part of Toronto's offensive production. This offense is also due for some slight regression as the analytics slightly trail the surface-level stats in terms of goals scored (eighth versus third).
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Not only does Samsonov enter this contest in good form, but he also possesses a terrific record against Carolina. Through six career appearances against the Hurricanes, he is 5-0 with a .929 SV% and a 2.03 GAA.
Both offenses are stacked, but Carolina's blue line is even better and Toronto's can hold its own (usually). At the same time, both goaltenders are in tremendous form as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in 13 of their past 21 combined starts.
At plus money, I think it's worth taking a shot on a low-scoring game, similar to the contest these teams played in December.
Pick: Under 6 (+105 at bet365) | Play to +100
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