NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Bruins (Saturday, January 6)
(Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Pictured: David Pastrňák #88 of the Boston Bruins in a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Lightning vs. Bruins Odds
| Lightning Odds | +132 |
| Bruins Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +106o / -130u |
A high-profile Atlantic Division clash is on the docket Saturday when the Tampa Bay Lightning visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Bruins.
The Lightning will be wrapping up a three-game road trip after a 4-1 win over the Minnesota Wild on Thursday. The same night, the Bruins came up just short in a 6-5 home loss to Pittsburgh.
Back in November, the Lightning prevailed over the Bruins in a 5-4 overtime win at Amalie Arena. Here's why bettors should look out for a tighter outcome this time around. Let's dive into the matchup and offer a Lightning vs. Bruins preview and prediction.
The Lightning aren't the regular-season powerhouses they once were, but they aren't losing ground in the playoff race, either. Tampa Bay is 6-4-0 in its last 10 games and still with the pack, although most of the other teams in the mix have games in hand.
And while Andrei Vasilevskiy needed a minute to get back in the groove when he returned to the lineup following back surgery, he has been solid over the last month. Since Dec. 4, Vasilevskiy is tied for the league lead with eight wins to go along with a 2.54 goals-against average and .914 save percentage.
That's especially important because the Lightning haven't been strong at 5-on-5 this season. Their expected goals share has dropped further over the last 10 games to 46.74%, which ranks 25th in the league.
And injuries have been an issue on the blue line. Mikhail Sergachev and Haydn Fleury are both on injured reserve, and Erik Černák has missed the last two games with an upper-body ailment.
Special teams remain strong, however. Tampa Bay is 3-for-6 on the power play so far on this road trip and has given up just one goal while shorthanded in the last six games.
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After their historic 135-point regular season in 2022-23, the Bruins have surprised by remaining near the top of the league despite the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí. There have been some rough patches, including an 0-2-2 stretch before Christmas, but Boston came out of the holiday break with four straight wins before dropping a 6-5 decision to Pittsburgh on Thursday.
Jeremy Swayman was in net for that loss, so expect Linus Ullmark to get the nod Saturday. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner has won his last two starts, giving up just three goals in total, and sits at 9.4 goals saved above expected this year.
Generally speaking, Boston's defense has been its bread and butter, and special teams have also been strong. But the power play has gone cold over the last three games at just 1-for-7 and the penalty kill has allowed at least one goal in eight of the last 10 games.
Surprisingly, the Bruins' 5-on-5 numbers aren't great over the last 10 games, either. Their expected goals share of 44.96% ranks 27th, two spots below the Lightning.
Lightning vs. Bruins
Betting Pick & Prediction
With an 11-3-3 record on home ice this season, the Bruins are strong favorites in this matchup, opening at -156 on the moneyline. And while the Lightning are coming into this game after a road win in Minnesota, they're just 8-11-2 away from Amalie Arena this year.
So rather than looking for a winner, let's look at the total. Both Ullmark and Vasilevskiy have been rounding into form as the season wears on. So despite the firepower on both rosters, this is shaping up to be a goaltending duel.
As of Friday night, BetMGM and other outlets are offering plus money for bettors who target a total of Under 6 goals. That's good value.
Pick: Under 6 (+100 at BetMGM; play down to -115)
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