Lightning vs Capitals Odds | NHL Preview & Prediction (Saturday, December 23)
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Lightning vs. Capitals Odds
| Lightning Odds | -150 |
| Capitals Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104 / -128 |
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals will both be looking to head into the holiday break on a high note when the two sides square off Saturday at Capital One Arena.
Both squads are in the thick of the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference. The Capitals hold a one-point edge and four games in hand over their one-time Southeast Division foe.
Both teams are riding winning streaks into Saturday's matchup, so something has to give.
Take a look at our Lightning vs Capitals prediction and why you should back the home underdogs to tally a fourth straight win.
Since Dec. 4, the Lightning are 6-3-0. They're coming into Saturday's matchup following a 6-1 win over the St. Louis Blues and a raucous 5-4 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights. Those both came on home ice at Amalie Arena, where Tampa Bay is an impressive 10-3-3 this season.
Averaging 3.41 goals per game, the Lightning are one of the NHL's higher-scoring teams. They've put up 11 in their last two games, Nikita Kucherov is closing in on 60 points in just 33 games played and the power play is 5-for-10 in the last four games.
Defensively, things are a little shakier. Tampa Bay has given up four goals in four of its last five games. The penalty kill has also been struggling, with at least one goal allowed while shorthanded in seven of the last eight games.
Tampa Bay has just one key injury at the moment: Mikhail Sergachev is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body issue.
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For the first time in 15 games, Alexander Ovechkin got his name in the goal column when he notched the game-winner on the power play in overtime against Columbus on Thursday. It was the third straight extra-time win for the Capitals, who had taken down the Hurricanes and Islanders earlier in the week, and keeps them in the crowded playoff mix in the Eastern Conference.
With fewer games played than most of its foes, Washington is in a pretty good spot for a postseason return. Its minus-eight goal differential is a concern, as is its streaky play. Spencer Carbery's group seems to be see-sawing back and forth between winning and losing streaks, which makes it challenging for bettors to get a good read on this team.
On balance, Washington's 47.57% share of expected goals at 5-on-5 is below the league average. The Capitals play a solid defensive system, giving up just 2.73 goals per game. They have an excellent penalty kill and their team save percentage of .920 is good. Charlie Lindgren has been excellent, and Darcy Kuemper has also been solid in his recent starts, moving his record to 8-6-2 with just five goals allowed in his last three starts, all wins.
But Ovechkin is not the only Capital who has struggled to score. John Carlson continues to chip in from the blue line, but beyond Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson, there isn't much happening up front. The good news is that the moribund power play has started to show signs of life, with five goals in Washington's last five games.
T.J. Oshie, Sonny Milano and Connor McMichael have all been on the injured list. That opened the door for 19-year-old Ivan Miroshnichenko to get his first two games of NHL action this week on a third line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and fellow rookie Matthew Phillips.
Lightning vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is the first meeting of the year between Tampa Bay and Washington. Both teams have 12 points in their last 10 games, so there isn't much to choose between these two sides.
That being said, a bet on the home underdog offers some nice value. The Capitals opened at +110 on the moneyline and are available at +120 through BetMGM as of Friday night.
When you factor in Tampa's shaky 6-10-2 road record and Washington's strong results on home ice, then add in the Capitals' good recent goaltending and top it off with the fact that Ovechkin may have finally snapped out of his scoring slump, there's a solid possibility that the fans at Capital One Arena will head home happy Saturday.
Pick: Capitals moneyline (+120 at BetMGM; play down to +100)
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