NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs Kings (Saturday, December 30)
Pictured: James Hamblin. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Oilers vs. Kings Odds
| Oilers Odds | +104 |
| Kings Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130 / +106 |
It's a Pacific Division showdown on Saturday night as the Los Angeles Kings host the Edmonton Oilers at Crypto.com Arena.
The Kings have been one of the NHL's strongest squads through the first half of the season. Conversely, the Oilers are already in must-win mode as they try to dig out of an early season hole.
So, let's dig into this matchup and make a prediction for Oilers vs. Kings.
The "new coach bump" has been in full effect since the Oilers brought in Kris Knoblauch on Nov. 12. Since that time, Edmonton has gone 13-6-0, but it's tough to make up ground in the NHL standings. Even after their 5-0 win over the San Jose Sharks on Thursday, the Oilers remain five points out of a Western Conference wild-card spot going into Friday night's games.
It makes sense to throw out Edmonton's stats from the first month of the season, which don't reflect the team's current status. Since Nov. 12, the Oilers have the second-best expected goals share in the NHL at 5-on-5, at 57.37%. Edmonton is scoring a league-leading 4.05 goals per game while giving up a reasonable 2.89. The power play is a solid 27.6% and their penalty killing has been impressive with an 85.5% success rate.
Connor McDavid has 35 points in 19 games under Knoblauch and four others have also been producing at better than a point per game: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, who has put up 13 goals in 18 games.
Saturday will be the fifth game of a six-game road trip that was split up by the holiday break. After dropping the opener on Long Island, the Oilers closed out the eastern portion with wins over the Rangers and Devils. Then, they traveled to California and shut out the Sharks. They've outscored their opponents 15-6 over this three-game winning streak, but the power play has gone cold and is 0-for-11 over the past five games.
The Oilers will also play Sunday in Anaheim, so expect to see both Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard called into action this weekend. Skinner is coming off a 25-save shutout in San Jose, so he'll likely get the nod against the tougher opponent, the Kings. After a difficult start to the year, Skinner boasts a 13-9-1 record and has pulled his GAA under three, to 2.91.
After a scorching-hot start to the season, the Kings have come back down to earth a little bit. They're still in a Pacific Division playoff spot, with a comfortable cushion, but are a somewhat pedestrian 5-4-1 in their past 10 games and dropped a 3-2 decision in Vegas on Thursday.
That being said, the Kings are the only team better than the Oilers this season in terms of 5-on-5 possession. They've controlled 58.18% of expected goals, but Edmonton has been the superior in the past 10 games at 59.02% vs. 57.68%.
Los Angeles remains the best defensive team in the league, giving up just 2.34 goals per game. And while Cam Talbot continues to do good work at age 36 with his .924 save percentage and 10.3 goals saved above expected, David Rittich has also been steady since being called up to replace the injured Pheonix Copley. He's won both of his starts to date, both against San Jose, and given up just two goals.
The Kings are opening a three-game homestand on Saturday, so expect to see Talbot back in action.
Los Angeles boasts the best penalty kill in the league (86.9%), but has also struggled on the power play and is on an 0-for-13 streak over the past four games.
Ageless Anze Kopitar is the only Kings player averaging over a point per game, but his team is getting scoring from throughout the lineup and is led by Trevor Moore, who's up to 17 goals on the year.
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Oilers vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
Saturday's game will be the first of four between these Pacific Division rivals. The 2022-23 regular-season series was split evenly, with both sides winning once at home and once on the road.
Additionally, three of four games last season went under the total of 6.5.
Edmonton is the hotter squad at the moment and their playoff results have shown that they know how to get the better of the Kings. That creates an enticing plus-money opportunity for bettors.
Look for the Oilers to extend their winning streak to four games on Saturday night.
Pick: Oilers Moneyline (+112 on FanDuel) | Play to +100
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