NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Pick & Prediction: Red Wings vs. Lightning (April 13)

NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Pick & Prediction: Red Wings vs. Lightning (April 13) article feature image

Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner Jeannot.

  • The Tampa Bay Lighting close out their regular season against the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night.
  • The Red Wings enter on a four-game losing streak while the Lightning will likely be resting key players in preparation for the NHL playoffs.
  • Continue reading for Tony Sartori’s Red Wings vs. Lightning game preview and betting pick.

Red Wings vs. Lightning Odds

Red Wings Odds+195
Lightning Odds-245
Over/Under6.5 (-112 / -109)
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

There is an Atlantic Division tilt set to kick off Thursday's NHL slate with the third-place Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the seventh-place Detroit Red Wings.

The last time these two clubs met, Tampa Bay took care of business with a 3-0 win in Detroit. Will we see a similar result, or can the Wings pull off the upset this time around?

Here's a look at the odds and a preview, as well as my Red Wings vs. Lightning betting pick.

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Detroit Red Wings

Looking lifeless to close out the season, the Red Wings have dropped four straight games with a -13 goal differential over that stretch. The offense has fallen flat, scoring just one goal in each of its past three games.

This season, Detroit ranks 23rd in goals scored per game, and its underlying metrics are even worse. At 5-on-5, the Red Wings rank 31st in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).

Unfortunately for Detroit, its defense — outside of last season's Calder Trophy winner Moritz Seider — is hardly any better. The Red Wings rank 22nd in goals allowed per game.

Backing up this defensively weak team is goaltender Ville Husso, who is projected to start between the pipes. It has been a tough campaign for Husso, who is 26-21-7 with a .896 save percentage (SV%) and 3.09 goals against average (GAA) through 55 starts.

Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, he is 1-5-1 with a troubling .832 SV% and 4.37 GAA over his past seven starts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Husso's plate is going to be particularly full in this contest against one of the league's best offenses. At 5-on-5, the Lightning rank eighth in xGF/60.

While the Bolts will likely sit all of their stars to rest for their first-round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, the lineup is deep enough that they should still find plenty of high-danger scoring chances against Detroit's thin blue line.

Goaltender Brian Elliott, who has consistently handled the Red Wings over the years, is the confirmed starter for Tampa. Through 19 career starts against Detroit, Elliott boasts a .920 SV% and 2.23 GAA.

Over his past eight starts against the Wings, he is 7-1 with a .929 SV% and 1.86 GAA.

Red Wings vs. Lightning Pick

If you are going to back the Bolts in this contest, then it makes more sense to take their puck line at +104 rather than laying north of two dollars on the moneyline. Of Tampa's last 19 wins, a whopping 16 have come by at least a two-goal margin.

On the flip side, 15 of Detroit's last 20 losses have come by at least a two-goal differential. While the Bolts are likely going to sit Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, etc., they are still good enough to produce a high level of hockey than the Wings.

Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+104 | Play to -110)

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