NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Sabres vs Canadiens (Thursday, January 4)
(Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) Pictured: Michael Pezzetta
Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds
| Sabres Odds | -135 |
| Canadiens Odds | +114 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -120 / +102 |
As part of its 13-game Thursday slate, the NHL has a classic Atlantic Division clash on tap as the Buffalo Sabres travel to Montreal to take on the Canadiens.
Both teams are outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, but Montreal holds a three-point edge over Buffalo and has won both head-to-head matchups this season.
Here's my prediction for Sabres vs. Canadiens and why you should back Montreal to start 2024 with consecutive wins.
Buffalo will technically be playing the second game of a three-game road trip on Thursday, but the Sabres haven't played since their 5-1 loss in Ottawa on New Year's Eve.
Buffalo's a decent puck-possession team, controlling 49.76% of expected goals. However, the Sabres have struggled to get saves, though rookie Devon Levi is sitting at a respectable -0.5 goals saved above expected. The bigger issue is that the goals just aren't coming. Casey Mittelstadt is having a strong season and leads the team with 31 points in 38 games. The Sabres have lots of players who get in on the offense, but no one is leading the charge the way Tage Thompson did with his 94-point campaign last season.
Special teams are a weakness, and the power play has been blanked in each of the past four games.
On the injury front, the Sabres welcomed back Zemgus Girgensons from a 17-game absence on New Year's Eve, but lost captain Kyle Okposo that same night.
The Canadiens are looking for their third victory of the season over the Sabres. Montreal is finally back on home ice after a monster seven-game road trip that finished with an impressive 4-3 win in Dallas on Tuesday.
With a .500 record, the Canadiens have taken a step forward, but remain outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Perhaps their best quality is squeezing out more points than they might objectively deserve, especially on the road, where they're 9-7-3. Montreal is tied for 23rd in the overall standings, despite a -22 goal differential and an expected goals share of 46.49% at 5-on-5. Both are fifth-worst in the league.
All three of the Canadiens' goaltenders are also pulling their weight. Jake Allen got the win against the Sabres in October and Cayden Primeau picked up the 'W' in December. Sam Montembeault just played the last two games of the road trip, so Allen might be the logical choice to start against the Sabres on Thursday.
Injuries have been a constant for the Canadiens, so it's a positive sign that their defense and goaltenders are healthy. But they're still missing quite a few bodies up front, including Christian Dvorak, Tanner Pearson, Alex Newhook and Rafael Harvey-Pinard.
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Sabres vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both Buffalo and Montreal struggle to maintain consistency, which makes it tough to project which team will come out on top on Thursday — or if we'll see a high- or low-scoring game.
Looking at the season series to date, Montreal is 2-0 and both games have had under 6.5 goals. Buffalo is better rested, and it looks like the fact that the Canadiens will be playing their first game back home after a grueling road trip could be the reason why the oddsmakers favored the Sabres (-130) on the opening line.
That may also be a show of support for the goaltender, Levi, who's 7-6-2 on the year. However, the 22-year-old has lost his past two starts, giving up four goals in each game.
And for a Sabres team that struggles to maintain focus for a full 60 minutes, the absence of the veteran leader Okposo also looms large.
Coming off a confidence-building win in Dallas, look for the home underdogs to prevail.
Pick: Canadiens Moneyline (+115 at BetMGM. Play to +100)
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