Stars vs Golden Knights Odds, Preview: NHL Game 4 Prediction
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Stars vs. Golden Knights Odds, Preview
| Stars Odds | -115 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -104 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -124 / -102 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights on Monday, April 29 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
This is not your typical 1-vs-8 matchup. Though the Stars held a 15-point edge in the regular-season standings, Vegas is the defending Stanley Cup champion — and got there after a brutalizing six-game series win over Dallas in the 2023 Western Conference Final. That was capped off by a 6-0 shellacking, and then Vegas also swept all three games of the 2023-24 regular season.
So the Stars may have gotten a monkey off their back with their overtime win at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday. But given how hard they had to work to get a win despite a substantial edge in play all series long, it's hard to ignore the threat that Vegas poses.
That creates an opportunity to back the home underdog to take a 3-1 series lead Monday.
It took 46 shots and 76:23 of game action before Wyatt Johnston's overtime goal finally gave the Stars their first win of the series. Dallas has dominated possession at 5-on-5 and gotten better with every game, controlling 57.8% of expected goals in Game 1 and 64.1% in Game 2 before ramping all the way up to 79.0% in Vegas on Saturday.
After laying an egg in Game 1, giving up four goals on just 15 shots, Jake Oettinger has now settled down. With a relatively light workload, he's still at a .892 save percentage and minus-1.5 goals saved above expected, but his goals-against average of 2.50 is in the range where the Stars should have a chance to win on any given night.
And on a Dallas team that's deep with experience, it's the young guys who are delivering the offense. Jason Robertson, 24, leads the team with four points, and the second of the postseason for 20-year-old Johnston was a seeing-eye snipe that ended Saturday's game.
Considering how much hate bubbled up between these two teams during the 2023 playoffs, it's a bit surprising to see how much 5-on-5 play there has been in the series so far.
With a dangerous power play that ranked sixth in the NHL in the regular season, Dallas has gone just 1-for-5 through the first three games. And while Vegas's 50% conversion rate looks impressive at first glance, that's actually off two goals on just four opportunities, plus a shorthanded goal Saturday.
On the injury front, forwards Mason Marchment and Radek Faksa both skated Sunday after missing Game 3 because of injuries. Stars coach Peter DeBoer has said they'll be game-time decisions Monday.
Throughout their brief history, the Golden Knights have built a well-earned reputation for finding ways to win. And on Saturday, they got to overtime despite being badly outshot and outplayed, thanks to a three-minute span midway through the second period that saw Brayden McNabb get a puck past Oettinger, and then Jack Eichel score shorthanded.
But the biggest reason they had a chance was Logan Thompson in net. With 43 saves in Game 3, Thompson is up to 4.8 goals saved above expected, with a .927 save percentage and 2.14 GAA.
It should be noted, however, that those numbers are uncharacteristically strong for the 27-year-old, whose career NHL save percentage comes in at .912. And after a long, hard night like he experienced Saturday, will he be fresh enough to deliver another strong showing in Game 4?
Stanley Cup hero Adin Hill has backed up Thompson for the first three games. He dealt with injuries through the season and struggled down the stretch, but he's available as an option if Thompson falters.
Vegas is an opportunistic team but could use more offense from its lineup. Eichel is the only player averaging over a point per game, with five. Jonathan Marchessault, Noah Hanifin and McNabb each have three points.
Defenseman Nic Hague has missed the last two games with a lower-body injury, and he isn't expected to suit up for Game 4.
Stars vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
Looking at Dallas's playoff-best expected goals share and the fact that the road team has won every game in this series to date, it makes sense that the Stars opened as slight moneyline favorites at -115.
While the data suggest Dallas should be able to level the series Monday, the Golden Knights' innate swagger and their home-ice advantage makes them a threat – even if they don't necessarily deserve to be.
Use their underdog status to your advantage and grab the longer line for Game 4.
Pick: Golden Knights ML (-104 at FanDuel | Play down to -110)
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