NHL Picks & Predictions: Our Experts’ 5 NHL Best Bets Tonight (Thursday, March 14)
Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty. Pictured: Frank Vatrano #77 and Ryan Strome #16 of the Anaheim Ducks
- Thursday's NHL slate features 12 games, all of which air on ESPN+.
- Read on for the Action Network staff's best bets tonight, including picks for a moneyline, a total, a game prop and two player props.
Check out our NHL picks and predictions with our experts' best bets for Thursday, March 14.
The Action Network's hockey crew has rummaged through the betting markets for tonight's hefty 12-game slate, which we've also covered with our individual NHL game previews. And they've found some keepers in those markets.
For our NHL best bets tonight, we're targeting five games in particular with a moneyline bet, a total, a game prop and two player props.
Below, check out and tail along with our experts' NHL picks for the Thursday slate, which is available fully on ESPN+.
(NHL fans: North Carolina sports betting is now live! In the Tar Heel State? Jump in and join tonight's hockey action!)
NHL Picks and Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NHL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Islanders vs. Sabres
The Sabres aren't quite finished in the wild-card race yet. A regulation win tonight would have them only three points back of the Islanders. Given that New York has played two fewer games, it's still a long shot, but this do-or-die spot will hold a playoff feel nonetheless.
These sides were also battling for the final wild-card spot at this point last season. Their two matchups in March finished with 3-2 and 2-0 scores.
The Sabres' offensive play is far from what it was last year, but they have really cleaned things up defensively of late. That strength has fueled a late push for the final spot. They have allowed just 2.30 goals against per game over the last 20 matchups. Over the last month of play, their 2.97 xGA/60 ranks ninth best, and Ukko Pekka Luukkonnen has remained in excellent form.
The Islanders' defensive play has signficantly improved since Patrick Roy took over as head coach. Over the last month of play, the team ranks first in allowing only 2.50 xGA/60. Ilya Sorokin is still one of the best goaltenders in the game, as well.
As NHL games become more important and draw a higher level of urgency, scores go down. Both of these teams have displayed strong defensive form recently, and they're receiving excellent netminding.
This is a good spot to target a bet on the under 6 at -114 odds.
Pick: Under 6 (-114)
Coyotes vs. Red Wings
By Carol Schram
There’s no sign that the Detroit Red Wings’ mega-slump will end anytime soon.
They’ve now lost six in a row and been outscored 32-11 cumulatively. They’ve also been shut out twice, including a 4-0 loss to the Coyotes at Mullett Arena this past Friday.
The biggest issue is that goaltending savior Alex Lyon has hit a wall. The 31-year-old has never played more than 15 NHL games in a season. This year, he’s up to 33. And while he posted an 8-2-2 record with a .923 save percentage in January, that slipped to .883 in February and is now .851 in March.
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The picture isn’t much better for James Reimer, who's given up nine goals in his last 122:39 of action.
Now, the Red Wings have slipped out of a playoff spot, which ratchets up the pressure. And the team has been missing its captain, Dylan Larkin, for the last four games due to a lower-body injury. He isn’t expected to get back on the ice until next week at the earliest.
The Coyotes are certainly dealing with issues of their own, and they opened their current road trip with multi-goal losses in Chicago and Minnesota. But Detroit’s in a tough spot. They moneyline has dipped a bit since opening, but +136 odds still offer incentive to back the road 'dogs to inflict more pain on Thursday. We'll take the moneyline down to +120.
Pick: Coyotes (+136)
Bruins vs. Canadiens
By Grant White
Hockey purists are being treated to a classic showdown on Thursday night as the Montreal Canadiens host the Boston Bruins at Bell Centre. The Original Six foes square off in what's guaranteed to be an entertaining affair.
It's been easy to dismiss the Habs for most of the year, but as they typically do, they are turning things on over the final few weeks of the season. Montreal has outplayed its opponents in three of the past five, getting more production and output from every part of its lineup.
Over that stretch, the Canadiens are scoring on 10.2% of their shots at 5-on-5 while averaging 9.0 high-danger chances per game. That increased scoring comes at a time when we're anticipating decreased effectiveness from the B's.
Boston has been running hot over its recent sample, accumulating a 1.034 PDO over its last seven games. The more concerning trend is that they've outplayed their opponents in only four of those contests, highlighting the unsustainable nature of their success.
The Bruins' advantage isn't as pronounced as the betting market implies. The Habs have been effective lately, and they've tilted the ice in their direction.
Conversely, Boston has outlasted its metrics and is due for regression. We give the edge to the Canadiens in this one, but with three of their past six going to overtime, I think Thursday's Atlantic Division battle will get sorted out in overtime or a shootout, so I'm betting the regulation tie.
Pick: 60-Minute Tie (+360)
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
By Greg Liodice
Ryan Poehling probably isn’t a guy you typically hear of. He’s a bottom-six forward who's known for his hard work, grinding and defense. You’ll never be wowed by his skill, but he thinks the game always a step ahead.
The Philadelphia Flyers take on the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight with a lot on the line. If Philly wins, it continues to build momentum into a possible playoff berth, and the Leafs seem to be sitting pretty.
Toronto has done well in the standings, and its 7-3 record over its last 10 games shows it. However, when you look deep into the weeds, there’s not much to be impressed by. The Leafs are capable of letting some teams slip by with an ugly goal here and there. Since Feb. 26, they’re ninth worst at 5-on-5 defense, with a 3.51 xGA/60.
Not only that, goaltending has been a red flag for years, and even their star power upfront can’t save them from that.
That’s where Poehling comes into play. When I looked at the Flyers’ analytics, Poehling’s name continued to gravitate toward the top in most categories over the past 10 games. He’s third among forwards in Corsi, first in expected goals, and third in high-danger chances.
That only tells me that he’s continued to be in the right spot at the right time. His PDO is very low, toward the bottom of the team, and PDO usually relies on puck luck – which he hasn’t gotten much of.
Poehling scored last week against Florida, but before that, it was a month before he got on the scoresheet. I think for a player like him, who thrives on 5-on-5 play, he’ll be playing a team that lets up a good number of chances.
At +500, let’s roll the dice and back the blue-collar worker to light the lamp.
Pick: Ryan Poehling Anytime Goalscorer (+500)
Ducks vs. Wild
By Tony Sartori
There's a Western Conference tilt on Thursday evening with the Minnesota Wild hosting the Anaheim Ducks, and oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair in this contest with the total set at 6.5.
One of the reasons for this high total is that goaltender Filip Gustavsson is slated to guard the cage for Minnesota. It's been a tough year for the Swedish netminder, who possesses a .894 SV% and 3.26 GAA through 38 appearances in the crease. He's now allowed three or more goals in six of his past eight games, posting a .883 SV% and 3.50 GAA over that stretch.
That brings us to Anaheim forward Frank Vatrano, the team's leading goalscorer who feels due to find the back of the net.
Vatrano has failed to score in five straight outings, but it is not for a lack of trying. He's averaging nearly four shots on goal per game over that stretch. If he keeps firing on net, the shots will start to find the back of the net, and perhaps that will come to fruition against Gustavsson and the Wild.
Not only does Vatrano lead the Ducks in goals, but he also leads the team in power-play goals. I mention this because Minnesota ranks in the bottom five of the league in both penalty minutes taken per game and penalty kill percentage.
Pick: Frank Vatrano Anytime Goalscorer (+210)
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