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Blues vs. Avalanche Game 5 Odds, Pick, Prediction: Colorado Poised to Close Series (May 25)

Blues vs. Avalanche Game 5 Odds, Pick, Prediction: Colorado Poised to Close Series (May 25) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan MacKinnon.

  • The Avalanche are heavy favorites in Game 5 against the St. Louis Blues.
  • Colorado has dominated play through four games of this series and just won two straight in St. Louis.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Blues vs. Avalanche Game 5 Odds

Blues Odds +210
Avalanche Odds -260
Over/Under 6.5 (-115 / -105)
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

St. Louis managed a huge win in Game 2 of this Western Conference semifinal and appeared in good shape heading back home to the Enterprise Center with the split.

Things didn’t go as planned in St. Louis, though, as the Blues were outscored by a combined 11-5 and head back to Colorado facing a do-or-die Game 5.

Will Colorado close this series in its first chance to do so? Let’s break down the matchup

St. Louis Struggles to Contain Elite Avs Attack

St. Louis spent a ton of energy worrying about more than simply winning a crucial affair in Game 4, looking to exact a measure of revenge from Nazem Kadri for bumping Jordan Binnington in Game 3.

The result was ultimately not very good, as Colorado broke through with a big second period on route to a 6-3 victory. The Avalanche’s deep offensive attack again proved too much for this shaky St. Louis defensive core to handle, and Colorado won the expected goals battle 3.39-1.93.

St. Louis now has just a 40.34 xGF% in the series and has generated 33 high-danger scoring chances to the Avs’ 43.

Colorado’s deep roster with elite talents has provided a tough challenge for St. Louis’ limited defensive core, and I think it’s unlikely we see the Blues hide their mediocre defense at this point.

Ville Husso has not thrived by any means this playoff either, and seeing the red-hot Jordan Binnington fall to injury was another notable blow. Husso has played to a -4.8 Goals Saved Above Expected rating (GSAx) in five playoff games, with an .884 save percentage.

Given a bigger sample size, I’m sure those numbers would be closer to his regular-season averages. St. Louis will most likely need a massive performance from the 27 year old Finn in Game 5 to be in with a chance.

Colorado’s Elite Talent Is Turning in Elite Results

Colorado is skating one of the more talented rosters in recent history. It has been clear throughout this playoff run how many different ways it can find ways to win.

Kadri was the star of the show in Game 4, managing three goals and an assist in an inspiring performance. All season, he has been spectacular on the power play and driving the second unit. Kadri is a big reason why it’s just so hard to match up with the Avs.

Nathan MacKinnon and the top-unit has been excellent, while Cale Makar and Devon Toews have clearly been the best defensive pairing during the postseason. Behind that, Colorado has gotten excellent playoff performances from a number of depth pieces like Arturri Lehkonen.

Colorado has played to the best expected goals rating during the playoffs at 61.91 xGF% in eight games.

Most importantly behind all of that, Darcy Kuemper has been very steady when called upon between the pipes, as evidenced by a .917 save percentage and -0.1 GSAx.

Jared Bednar’s group knows full well how quickly these series can get away given its playoff failures in recent years. Wrapping up the series as quickly as possible is also crucial for a team already without defenseman Samuel Girard for the rest of the playoffs.

My belief is the Avalanche will play a confident and sharp game Wednesday, and we should see this spectacular roster playing at close to its peak form.

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Blues vs Avalanche

All season, I have been pretty bullish about just how good this St. Louis team truly is. Now, I feel the Blues are running on fumes against the ridiculously good Avalanche.

It’s possible we could see the Blues show a ton of resilience and find a way to steal Game 5 in Colorado, but it’s a lot easier to envision this deep Colorado attack causing a wealth of problems yet again, and the numbers surely support that likely playing out.

Plus money for the Avs to win by two or more seems like a good proposition to me, and I surely believe we have value to make a play on them to finish St. Louis with a big performance at home tonight.

Pick: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 +105 (play to -110)

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