The Ottawa Senators (12-9-4) and Montreal Canadiens (13-8-3) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Senators are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+105o / -125u). The Senators are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Senators vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks.
Senators vs. Canadiens Odds, Pick
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +215 | 6.5 +105o / -125u | -115 |
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -275 | 6.5 +105o / -125u | -105 |
- Senators vs. Canadiens Spread: Senators -1.5 (+215), Canadiens +1.5 (-275)
- Senators vs. Canadiens Over/Under: 6.5 (+105o / -125u)
- Senators vs. Canadiens Moneyline: Senators -115, Canadiens -105
Senators vs. Canadiens Preview
Ottawa Senators
Can someone please check in on the Senators? A three-week, seven-game road trip is not for the faint of heart.
You can see, though, that the trip has been wearing on them. They started it off on the right track, winning the first two games, but then lost a close one against the Kings, and then won in Vegas in a shootout.
But then a loss in St. Louis and a debilitating beatdown in Dallas capped off the American side of traveling, and now they get to end it in Montreal tonight.
Somehow, someway within this timeframe, Ottawa is playing lights-out 5-on-5 hockey, with Travis Green letting his boys play their game.
It doesn’t hurt that Captain Brady Tkachuk is back, too.
Since the start of the road trip, Ottawa is playing to a fourth-best 57.32 xGF% and on the defensive side, a fifth-best 2.32 xGA/60.
Special teams have struggled a bit, though in this stretch, as it’s only scoring on the power play 16% of the time, while the penalty kill has only been successful 74% of the time.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Linus Ullmark get in between the pipes tonight, as he’s taken on the bulk of the carries. It hasn’t been the best season for him, though, as he’s playing to a porous .874 SV% and a league-worst -9.4 GSAx.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens were also on a little road trip themselves, nowhere near the magnitude of Ottawa’s, though.
They walked away with a 2-1 record, most recently getting walloped by the Colorado Avalanche by the score of 7-2.
After a strong start to the season, November hasn’t really been kind to the Habs, as they went 5-6-3.
At least captain Nick Suzuki has stayed true to his game, recording points in five straight games and Cole Caufield has registered one in seven straight.
But the rest of the squad has struggled mightily. Montreal’s 5-on-5 game has been abhorrent, playing to a 39 xGF% – worst in the league, as well as a fifth-worst 3.15 xGA/60.
On top of that, Montreal’s penalty kill has suffered, as it owns the seventh-worst penalty kill with a 76.5% success rate. However, the power play has been strong with Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky and Zack Bolduc being some of the better power play scorers in the league.
With the defense playing so poorly, it’s reflected in the goaltending, as both Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes have taken dramatic hits.
Montembeault, who has been pulled in two of his last five starts, will get the nod. He did have a great game against Vegas on Friday, but his inability to stay consistent is a tad worrisome.
Senators vs. Canadiens Prediction
It’s a pretty even matchup with both teams struggling.
So I’m going to lean on the total here. Zero exaggeration, both goaltenders are playing like some of the worst in the league. I mentioned that Ullmark had a league-worst GSAx; well, Montembeault is ninth-worst.
With how great Ottawa has been during this road trip (minus the Dallas blowout), I believe they’ll be able to light the lamp quite a bit, and even though the Habs have been playing terrible hockey, they still have exceptional scorers in Suzuki in Caufield to soften the blow.
Take the over. While 6.5 goals is a lot, it’s plus money, and these goaltenders stink.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+110)
