Predators vs Stars Preview, Prediction: NHL Odds, Best Bets (Friday, Jan. 12)
(Photo by Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images). Pictured: Matt Duchene #95 of the Dallas Stars.
Predators vs. Stars Odds
| Predators Odds | +140 |
| Stars Odds | -170 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110o / -110u |
It's a light night in the NHL on Friday, with just two games on the schedule.
In the Lone Star State, the Dallas Stars will be looking to avenge a home-ice loss from less than a week ago when the Nashville Predators return to town. It will be the third of four meetings this season between these Central Division foes, who are currently separated by eight points in the standings. The two previous contests were both one-goal games in which the road team prevailed, with Dallas winning 3-2 in Nashville on Dec. 23 before the Predators skated home with a 4-3 win last Saturday.
Let's preview the matchup with a Nashville Predators vs. Dallas Stars prediction and pick.
Heading into Thursday night's NHL slate, Nashville is holding down the first wild-card spot in the West but has played more games than most of the other teams in the playoff mix. The Predators are 3-2-0 in their last five games and have been very consistent at the offensive end of the ice, averaging three goals per game.
Some nights they can lock it down defensively, but they can also be very porous on that end. That starts in net, where Juuse Saros has surrendered five goals in four of his last five starts.
Nashville's 5-on-5 game is good, controlling 51.68% of expected goals. Saros has a winning record but is not performing up to his usual level, with an .899 save percentage and -8.9 goals saved above expected. Special teams are also a weakness, especially the penalty kill. The Predators' penalty kill has struggled all year and given up a goal in each of the last three games, while a relatively decent power play has been blanked in those same games.
Offensively, Filip Forsberg is playing some of the best hockey of his career on a line with Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. And the Predators are relatively healthy, just missing defenseman Tyson Barrie from their regular lineup.
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After going through their worst stretch of the season by starting 2024 with an 0-2-1 record, the Stars got back on track in a home-and-home against the Minnesota Wild with 4-0 and 7-2 wins.
With so many good teams in the Western Conference this season, Dallas has flown under the radar. But the 2023 Western Conference finalists deserve respect for their .663 points percentage, +27 goal differential and 55.68% expected goals share at 5-on-5, which is fourth-best in the league.
The Stars are the second-best offensive team in the league, averaging 3.68 goals per game, with seven double-digit goal-scorers and six players over 40 points. They're also a top team on the penalty kill, and have held the fort with a 7-3-2 record over the last 12 games while all-star goalie Jake Oettinger has been sidelined with a lower-body injury.
On Thursday, Stars coach Pete DeBoer said Oettinger could possibly return against Nashville on Friday. Dallas is also heading into a back-to-back set, and will play in Chicago on Saturday.
The Stars are also dealing with one other very significant injury. Big-minute defenseman Miro Heiskanen has missed the last three games with a lower-body injury and is said to be week-to-week.
Predators vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
As you'd expect, the home team opened as strong favorites on the moneyline. At -175, Dallas' implied odds of winning are just shy of 64%.
The Stars controlled nearly 63% of expected goals at 5-on-5 in last Saturday's loss to the Predators, suggesting they deserved a better fate. After their pair of multi-goal beatdowns of Minnesota, look for the Stars to keep that going on Friday, with revenge on their minds.
Pick: Stars -1.5 (+140 via DraftKings; Play to +120)
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