The San Jose Sharks (38-35-8) and Winnipeg Jets (35-34-12) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, MB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Jets are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+102o / -130u). The Jets are a -162 favorite to win outright, while the Sharks are +134 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sharks vs. Jets predictions and NHL picks.
Sharks vs. Jets Odds, Pick
| Sharks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 6.5 102o / -124u | +134 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 6.5 102o / -130u | -162 |
- Sharks vs. Jets Spread: Sharks +1.5 (-196), Jets -1.5 (+158)
- Sharks vs. Jets Over/Under: 6.5 (+102o / -130u)
- Sharks vs. Jets Moneyline: Sharks +134, Jets -162
Sharks vs. Jets Preview
San Jose Sharks
Since most expected the Sharks to be near the basement of the league, this season was a solid step in the right direction.
San Jose has a superstar in Macklin Celebrini, who's fourth in the league with 112 points at 19 years old, and the supporting cast gave plenty of reasons for optimism.
Will Smith had a strong second year, while William Eklund and Michael Misa, both former top-10 picks, flashed enough upside to be excited about. Igor Chernyshov and Collin Graf were also reliable contributors throughout the year.
Graf is the oldest of that group at 23, with everyone else 21 or under. Staying in the playoff race as long as they did with a roster that young is an encouraging sign of things to come.
However, down the stretch, San Jose went just 6-7-2 in their last 15 games. It seemed like the numbers that had been lurking all season finally caught up.
For the full year, they rank 26th in xGF/60 and 21st in xGA/60, with a 47.54 expected goal share, and the closing stretch played out pretty much in line with those numbers, including a -18 goal differential.
The defensive end is the most glaring issue to address this offseason, as San Jose allowed 3.53 GA/60 on the season, the third-worst mark in the league.
They dropped a 5-2 decision to Chicago last night and now finish the season on a back-to-back tonight in Winnipeg.
Yaroslav Askarov drew the start yesterday, so Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to be in goal tonight.
Askarov managed just six wins in his last 21 starts while posting a .865 SV% and 4.36 GAA in the closing month. Nedeljkovic has not been much better, carrying a -5.9 GSAx and a .865 SV% over his last 10 appearances.
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg finds itself at the opposite end of the spectrum from San Jose. A year removed from winning the Presidents' Trophy, the Jets are heading home for the offseason without a playoff berth, and the disappointment is hard to overstate.
There were individual bright spots. Mark Scheifele reached the 100-point mark for the first time in his career, finishing fifth in league scoring. Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey also turned in strong seasons. But the team as a whole fell well short of expectations.
The biggest shift from a year ago has been on the defensive end. After allowing the fewest goals against in each of the previous two seasons, Winnipeg slipped to 16th in that category this year, with a goal differential that declined by more than 100.
Whether you attribute it to injuries, an aging roster or something else, it’s a problem that has to be addressed this offseason.
The offense was not without its issues either, ranking 21st in xGF/60 at 2.99 and 24th in GF/60 at 2.78. The departure of Nikolaj Ehlers to Carolina appeared to be felt more than anticipated, and adding another capable forward up front has to be a priority, too.
It would be tough to put much blame, if any, on Connor Hellebuyck, as the structural issues in front of him were the more obvious culprit. By the numbers, it was the worst season of his career, sitting at a +5.5 GSAx, 2.86 GAA, and a career-low .895 SV%, coming off back-to-back Vezina Trophy wins (actually pretty impressive stats when framed as the worst season of his career).
Eric Comrie got the start last game, so tonight likely comes down to whether Winnipeg wants to give Hellebuyck one final appearance to end the season on a better note after an otherwise deflating year for the organization.
With that said, the logical option would be to give Comrie a second straight start. He has a -0.5 GSAx and .896 SV% over his last 10 games, with almost identical numbers in 24 games this season.
Sharks vs. Jets Prediction
It has been a deflating year for Winnipeg, and an equally deflating home stretch for San Jose. The Sharks have dropped four of their last five games with a goal differential of -11 over those games, while the Jets have dropped three straight with a -12 differential of their own.
It feels like two teams that just want to get to the offseason.
Lack of offense has been the common thread. Both squads have gone over the total in four of their last five, though that's not been their own doing: each has allowed 4+ goals per game.
Given the spot, I don’t see enough scoring on either side to get over this number in a meaningless matchup.
In addition, it doesn't carry too much weight, as these teams have played twice this season with just six total goals scored across the two meetings.
Add in San Jose on the second half of a back-to-back, and this game feels like a sleeper to me.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-130, FanDuel)
