The Washington Capitals (40-30-9) and Pittsburgh Penguins (41-22-16) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 3:00 p.m. ET at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Penguins are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-110o / -110u). The Penguins are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Capitals are +104 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Capitals vs. Penguins predictions and NHL picks.
Capitals vs. Penguins Odds, Pick
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +198 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Capitals vs. Penguins Spread: Capitals +1.5 (-250), Penguins -1.5 (+198)
- Capitals vs. Penguins Over/Under: 6.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Capitals vs. Penguins Moneyline: Capitals +104, Penguins -125
Capitals vs Penguins Polymarket Odds
Use Polymarket invite code Action to get early access and bypass 1 million+ people on the waitlist. Our Polymarket invite code also unlocks a trading bonus: Deposit $20, Get $20 Bonus!
Current odds: CAP 46% · PEN 55% · NHL
View full market & place a trade on Polymarket
Capitals vs. Penguins Preview
Washington Capitals
It is essentially Metro or bust for Washington. The Capitals have all but eliminated themselves from the wild card race, sitting five points behind Ottawa for the final spot. Their more realistic path runs through the division, where they trail the Flyers by three points for third in the Metropolitan.
The remaining schedule is no gimme either. A home-and-home against Pittsburgh today and tomorrow, followed by a trip to Columbus on Tuesday. Jumping Philadelphia for third is a long shot, but with Alexander Ovechkin's retirement a possibility after the season, it's hard not to root for some late magic. Plus, a first-round playoff matchup pitting Ovi against Sid one final time is a story the hockey world deserves.
Head coach Spencer Carbery appears to be taking a bully approach to get there. He deployed the "700-pound line" of Tom Wilson alongside the Protas brothers against Toronto, and the Caps rolled to a 4-0 shutout. Toronto's season is completely lifeless at this point, so take that with some salt.
Still, there’s legitimate optimism brewing. Ilya Protas looked comfortable in his NHL debut against Toronto, which is not a surprise given his AHL season. He’s racked up 28 goals and 34 assists in 66 games.
Defenseman Cole Hutson has also been opening eyes through his first 11 games at the NHL level, giving Washington another reason to feel good about the future.
As for the recent play, Washington has gone 6-3-1 over its last 10 games. The underlying numbers are not great, but the team has been finding the net, putting up 3.46 GF/60 over that stretch. The big concern is on the other end, where they’re giving up 3.56 GA/60, though that number is somewhat inflated by an 8-1 blowout against the Rangers six days ago.
Special teams will be something to watch in this one as well, with a significant disparity between the two sides. Pittsburgh is seventh on the power play (24.6%) and sixth on the penalty kill (81.8%). The Caps have been plagued by special teams all season, sitting 27th on the power play at 17.4%, and while the penalty kill ranks 13th at 79.8%, it has not been without its issues either.
In net, despite the back-to-back, Logan Thompson will likely carry the load for as long as Washington stays mathematically alive. He has been one of the best goaltenders in the league this season, leading all netminders with a +28.1 GSAx rating along with a .912 SV%.
Charlie Lindgren is day-to-day with a lower-body injury after getting torched for eight goals by the Rangers last Sunday, potentially making Thompson the only option regardless.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh cannot improve or worsen its playoff position, but something tells me that won’t stop the Penguins from showing up for this one. The emotional weight of Crosby and Ovechkin potentially sharing the ice for the final two times over the next two days might have a way of rendering the standings irrelevant.
There has been some talk of Pittsburgh resting players, but that feels unlikely given the circumstances.
On the ice, the Penguins have been one of the NHL's best offenses all season, ranking fifth in xGF, and they have lived up to every bit of that lately, putting up 4.36 GF/60 over the last 10 games.
Rickard Rakell has led the charge, scoring 10 goals across those games, accounting for 10 of his 24 on the season. The Penguins had found something with the Malkin-Novak-Chinakhov line for a stretch, but sliding Rakell in at center over the last four games has moved Egor Chinakhov to the Crosby line, and the offense has been absolutely humming.
Not many expected Pittsburgh to be in this position at the start of the season, and a lot of the credit goes to how the roster has responded. 18-year-old rookie Ben Kindel has put together an outstanding first season, while several players written off elsewhere have stepped up.
Anthony Mantha came over from Calgary and leads the team with 31 goals, while Chinakhov, acquired from Columbus, and Justin Brazeau, signed as a free agent from Minnesota, have been huge contributors as well.
It also would not be a Penguins write-up without mentioning the fourth line. Connor Dewar, Blake Lizotte, and Noel Acciari were outstanding together before the injury bug hit. Dewar is day-to-day, and Lizotte has been out for roughly a month, though he is progressing and could return before the playoffs.
The trio has been a two-way asset, but the defensive numbers stand out with just 1.65 GA/60 allowed in their 363 minutes together. Getting them back would go a long way, especially with Pittsburgh ranking 22nd in xGA/60 (3.27) over their last 10 games.
No starter has been confirmed between Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs. Skinner got the last nod and turned in a quality performance, but neither goaltender has been sharp since the start of March.
Skinner carries a -0.1 GSAx, .878 SV%, and 3.43 GAA over his last 10 starts, while Silovs has been worse, posting a -7.1 GSAx, .867 SV%, and 3.33 GAA in that same sample.
Capitals vs. Penguins Prediction
There are certainly games with bigger playoff implications today, but this might be the most must-watch matchup on the slate.
For 21 years, we have had the pleasure of watching Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin go at it, and this home-and-home could possibly be the last time we get to witness it.
Beyond the sentimental angle, this is a genuinely fascinating matchup. Pittsburgh's offense has been on fire, scoring 19 goals over its last three games and a league-leading 44 over its last 10.
On the other side, Washington appears to have ditched balance and finesse in favor of a heavyweight approach, looking to outlast teams rather than outskill them. Given the roster and the current situation, it is hard to argue with that strategy.
The Penguins won the only meeting between these two this season, 5-3, but I like the setup for Washington here.
Pittsburgh would love nothing more than to end Washington's season and get the last laugh in the Crosby-Ovechkin rivalry, but the Capitals have that same motivation plus the added urgency of keeping their season alive.
I expect Washington's grind-it-out style of play to bother Pittsburgh, and a sizable advantage in net only sweetens it if the projected starters hold up.
Pick: Capitals Moneyline (+104, FanDuel)
