Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds: Bloomberg’s Chances to Win Nomination Rise, Bernie Sanders Remains the Favorite

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Win McNamee/Getty Image. Pictured: Michael Bloomberg

Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds (10 p.m. ET)

According to the betting market, the winner of the South Carolina debate on Tuesday night was former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who saw his chances to win the Democratic Primary rise from 20.5% to 24.2%. Senator Bernie Sanders remains the odds-on favorite after taking on critics from all sides during the debate. His chances to win the nomination decreased slightly from 51.3% to 47.5%.

Below are the full odds for all of the candidates:

Note: -110 odds means you have to bet $110 to win $100, while +275 means a $100 bet would profit $275.

  • Bernie Sanders: -110, 47.5% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +275, 24.2% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +750, 10.7% implied probability
  • Pete Buttigieg: +900, 9.1% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.4% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
  • Amy Klobuchar: +6000, 1.4% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +40000, 0.2% implied probability

(Note: Odds via Betfair. Implied probabilities are juice-free.)


Check out the best online sportsbooks in the U.S. and download our FREE app to get more political odds and betting analysis.


Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds (9 p.m. ET)

The biggest movers a hour into the Democratic debate are Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden, who have both seen a slight uptick in their chances to win the nomination. That has resulted in Bernie Sanders’ odds going down slightly. Before the debate, Bernie had a 51.3% chance to win the nomination, according to the betting markets. Now, his odds sit at 48.7%.

  • Bernie Sanders: -110, 48.7% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +320, 22.1% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +750, 11.0% implied probability
  • Pete Buttigieg: +900, 9.3% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.5% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
  • Amy Klobuchar: +6000, 1.5% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +40000, 0.2% implied probability

Updated 2020 Democratic Primary Odds (8 p.m. ET)

Here are the odds to win the 2020 Democratic nomination at the beginning of Tuesday’s Democratic debate (via Betfair). These odds are unchanged from earlier in the day. We’ll see how the numbers shift during tonight’s debate. Stay tuned.

  • Bernie Sanders: -125, 51.3% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +350, 20.5% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +800, 10.3% implied probability
  • Pete Buttigieg: +900, 9.2% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.5% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
  • Amy Klobuchar: +6000, 1.5% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +40000, 0.2% implied probability

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was a prohibitive favorite to win the 2020 Democratic Primary last week entering the Nevada caucus, and his strong performance and victory Saturday has increased his odds even further.

He’s now the odds-on favorite to win the nomination at -125 odds (bet $125 to win $100), with a juice-free implied probability of 51.3%. For reference, he was at 45.0% prior to the Nevada results.

Still in second place in the betting market is former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, who didn’t really budge. He was at a 20.0% implied probability a week ago; he’s still at +350 today, or a 20.5% implied probability.

The biggest movement was with former VP Joe Biden, who jumped into third place and now has an implied probability of 10.2% to win the nomination. Pete Buttigieg dropped down to +900 or 9.2% probability, and Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar also saw significant drops.

The Warren number is interesting given that she was considered the winner of last week’s Nevada Democratic debate, and she raised millions of dollars off that performance. Apparently the betting market isn’t buying a rise.

Biden could be a bit undervalued by the betting market right now: He’s now a slight favorite to win the South Carolina primary this Saturday, and if he beats out Sanders, this will likely turn into a two-man race; Biden’s odds will likely jump at that point as the candidates push toward Super Tuesday on March 3.

But if Sanders — who is a slight underdog to Biden in South Carolina — wins South Carolina and shows solid support from African American voters, he will become a (rightfully) huge favorite to win the nomination.

See the full Democratic Primary Odds below.

(Note: Odds via Betfair. Implied probabilities are juice-free.)


Check out the best online sportsbooks in the U.S. and download our FREE app to get more political odds and betting analysis.


2020 Democratic Primary Betting Odds

  • Bernie Sanders: -125, 51.3% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +350, 20.5% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +800, 10.2% implied probability
  • Pete Buttigieg: +900, 9.2% implied probability
  • Hillary Clinton: +2500, 3.5% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +4000, 2.2% implied probability
  • Amy Klobuchar: +6000, 1.5% implied probability
  • Michelle Obama: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
  • Tom Steyer: +40000, 0.2% implied probability
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