2020 Florida Presidential Election Odds: Trump Takes Huge Lead
JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
Betfair has taken Florida off the board after Donald Trump took a huge lead on Tuesday night. We’ll update if they re-post it.
Florida Election Odds
Odds as of Tuesday, Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s -136 odds mean a $136 bet would net $100 if he wins Florida. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.
538 Florida Projection
Polling averages and projections as of Nov. 3 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.
Florida Presidential Race Updates
Tuesday, Nov. 2: While forecasters and pollsters still favor Joe Biden in Florida, the betting market is starting to drift further apart.
Donald Trump has a 55.7% probability to win the Sunshine State, according to the juice-free lines. The move in his favor coincides with a big move for Trump in the Presidential Election overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Friday, Oct. 30: Over the past two weeks, Joe Biden has flipped from a betting favorite (57.6% vs. 42.4%) to an underdog (48.5% vs. 51.5%) to win Florida over Donald Trump.
But with only five days to go until Nov. 3, the odds and polls tell different stories.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls, Biden holds a slight edge over Trump, 48.7% to 46.5%.
Wednesday, Oct. 14: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 57.6% vs. 42.4% edge in implied probability over Donald Trump to win Florida — a critical swing state.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls paints a slightly different picture of the presidential race in the Sunshine State, giving Biden only a 49.2% to 45% edge. That said, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast — which simulates the election 40,000 times — has Biden winning 71 out of every 100 times.
With 29 of the 538 total electoral votes, Florida is tied with New York for the third-most in the country, making it historically among the most important battleground states in each presidential election cycle. In fact, Florida has voted against the eventual winner only twice in the 22 presidential elections since 1928.
Trump won Florida in 2016, edging out Hillary Clinton 49.02% to 47.82%. That 1.2% difference made Florida the fifth-tightest race among the 50 states that election. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227.