2020 Florida Presidential Election Odds: Trump Takes Huge Lead

2020 Florida Presidential Election Odds: Trump Takes Huge Lead article feature image
Credit:

JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

Betfair has taken Florida off the board after Donald Trump took a huge lead on Tuesday night. We’ll update if they re-post it.


Florida Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Donald Trump
OFF
OFF
Joe Biden
OFF
OFF

Odds as of Tuesday, Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s -136 odds mean a $136 bet would net $100 if he wins Florida. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Florida Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
49.1%
Donald Trump
46.6%

538 Florida Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
69%
Donald Trump
31%

Polling averages and projections as of Nov. 3 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Florida Presidential Race Updates

Tuesday, Nov. 2: While forecasters and pollsters still favor Joe Biden in Florida, the betting market is starting to drift further apart.

Donald Trump has a 55.7% probability to win the Sunshine State, according to the juice-free lines. The move in his favor coincides with a big move for Trump in the Presidential Election overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Friday, Oct. 30: Over the past two weeks, Joe Biden has flipped from a betting favorite (57.6% vs. 42.4%) to an underdog (48.5% vs. 51.5%) to win Florida over Donald Trump.

But with only five days to go until Nov. 3, the odds and polls tell different stories.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls, Biden holds a slight edge over Trump, 48.7% to 46.5%.

Win a share of $100,000 in DraftKings’ FREE Presidential Election Pool!

Wednesday, Oct. 14: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 57.6% vs. 42.4% edge in implied probability over Donald Trump to win Florida — a critical swing state.

FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls paints a slightly different picture of the presidential race in the Sunshine State, giving Biden only a 49.2% to 45% edge. That said, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast — which simulates the election 40,000 times — has Biden winning 71 out of every 100 times.

With 29 of the 538 total electoral votes, Florida is tied with New York for the third-most in the country, making it historically among the most important battleground states in each presidential election cycle. In fact, Florida has voted against the eventual winner only twice in the 22 presidential elections since 1928.

Trump won Florida in 2016, edging out Hillary Clinton 49.02% to 47.82%. That 1.2% difference made Florida the fifth-tightest race among the 50 states that election. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories