Florida Election: What Polls & Betting Odds Say About Trump vs. Biden Presidential Race

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JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

Florida Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Joe Biden
-161
57.6%
Donald Trump
+120
42.4%

Odds as of Oct. 14 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Donald Trump’s +120 odds mean a $100 bet would net $120 if he wins Florida. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Florida Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Joe Biden
49.2%
Donald Trump
45.0%

538 Florida Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Joe Biden
71%
Donald Trump
29%

Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 14 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Florida Presidential Race Updates

Wednesday, Oct. 14: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Joe Biden a 57.6% vs. 42.4% edge in implied probability over Donald Trump to win Florida — a critical swing state.

FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls paints a slightly different picture of the presidential race in the Sunshine State, giving Biden only a 49.2% to 45% edge. That said, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast — which simulates the election 40,000 times — has Biden winning 71 out of every 100 times.


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With 29 of the 538 total electoral votes, Florida is tied with New York for the third-most in the country, making it historically among the most important battleground states in each presidential election cycle. In fact, Florida has voted against the eventual winner only twice in the 22 presidential elections since 1928.

Trump won Florida in 2016, edging out Hillary Clinton 49.02% to 47.82%. That 1.2% difference made Florida the fifth-tightest race among the 50 states that election. Trump ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes compared to Clinton’s 227.

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