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Argentina vs Australia World Cup Odds, Pick

Argentina vs Australia World Cup Odds, Pick article feature image

Marvin Ibo Guengoer/Getty. Pictured: Oliver Christensen.

Argentina vs. Australia Odds

Saturday, Dec. 3
2 p.m. ET
Argentina Odds-450
Australia Odds+1400
Over/Under2.5 (-125 / +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+175 / -250)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Closing out Saturday’s slate at the World Cup, Argentina playsAustralia in one of the more surprising match ups in the round of 16.

The South American side overcame an opening defeat to Saudi Arabia to top Group C by winning the following two games against Mexico and Poland.

Meanwhile, the Socceroos are one of the biggest shocks to advance out of the group stage, beating Tunisia and Denmark to secure a place in the knockout rounds.

This is shaping up to be a David vs. Goliath type of match, which makes this an interesting match to handicap. Let's dive in.

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Argentina Back in the Driver's Seat

It may not have been the start to the tournament that manager Lionel Scaloni’s side was looking for, but in the end they did win the group as everyone expected.

La Albiceleste were also very dominant in the three matches, owning a +5.43 xGDiff and averaging 2.09 xG per 90 minutes, according to

The attacking numbers can be a bit misleading due to the team winning a penalty in each game, but there is no hiding how well the side has played defensively.

Over the three group stage fixtures, Argentina held opponents to just 0.247 xG per game and did not allow a single big scoring chance. A strong defense paired with the star attacking talent could guide the South American nation to the final.

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Australia Fortunate to be Here

If everyone expected Lionel Messi’s team to make the knockout rounds, Australia advancing out of the group stage was a complete surprise to most, especially in a group with France and Denmark.

The Socceroos shocked the world by defeating Tunisia and the Danes to finish tied on points with the French. However, they did have some luck on their side in those games.

Over the three matches, Australia lost the xG battle in all of the games, posting a -4.08 xGDiff and averaging just 0.73 xG per fixture.

All that mattered in the end were the results, and a win here would be one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history.

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Argentina vs. Australia Pick

The oddsmakers at bet365 are expecting the Cinderella story to end, listing Argentina as the favorite to advance at -1200 odds and on the moneyline at -500. I can’t back any team at that sort of price, but I do see value in the props market.

My best bet is for Australia’s total team shots to fall under 6.5 at -125.

I mentioned above how well La Albiceleste have played defensively, but there are more numbers to back that up. In the three group-stage games, this same bet would have cashed for all three of Argentina’s opponents.

As for the Socceroos, the opener against France is a good comparison with how I feel this match is going to go. They'll be sitting in deep and not having a lot of the ball.

In that game, Australia tallied four shots, one big scoring chance and 0.52 xG. It was also a game where they finished with 0 xG in the second half.

One other lean for this match would be to play the second half as the half with the most goals at even money, but I’ll back the Argentina defense to have another dominant display as my best bet.

The Pick: Australia – Under 6.5 Shots (-125)

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