Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predictions, Odds, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Catherine Ivill/Getty. Pictured: Martin Odegaard.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predictions
| Arsenal Odds | -400 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +120 / -150 |
Manchester City went to the top of the Premier League table temporarily on Saturday with a 5-1 thrashing of Luton Town at home, and now the pressure shifts to both Liverpool and Arsenal to hold serve at the top of the title race against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa, respectively. Arsenal are the team that controls title destiny with seven matches to go in the season, and the Gunners have the best chance of dropping points this weekend based on oddsmakers assessment of the three matchups.
Even though it's a tough spot for the Gunners in the midst of their epic quarterfinal clash in the Champions League with Bayern Munich, Arsenal are playing their second straight home match, have the deeper squad and have two extra days of rest compared to visiting Aston Villa, who played Lille on Thursday in the Europa Conference League quarterfinal.
Given how much these two defenses have trended in opposite directions for the last two months, the value lies with Arsenal getting a routine win and moving one step closer to its first PL title in 20 years.
Let's dive into my Arsenal vs Aston Villa predictions and Premier League match preview.
Arsenal
Arsenal have become one of the best set piece attacking teams in the world to make up for the fact that the open play attack can be inconsistent without a true striker and an occasional over reliance on Bukayo Saka to create chances. The Gunners have created 12.4 xG from set pieces, which is third-most in the Premier League. They've scored 18 goals, which is the most in the league. Arsenal aren't even in the top five in goals from open play, yet they have the best goal difference in the league.
It's tenuous to rely so much on dead balls and set pieces to sustain your offensive metrics in the long run, but this is an ideal matchup. Aston Villa have conceded the highest xG per set piece, the third-most total xG and the third-most goals from set plays. All of this culminates in a considerable edge for Arsenal, one of the biggest head to heads of the entire season.
Arsenal's defense has shown some real flaws in European play, but Mikel Arteta's side ranks first in all of Europe in xGA conceded per match. In 15 home league matches, the Gunners allow just 0.66 xG per match. Arsenal have conceded twice in their last eight league matches — one on a goalie howler from backup Aaron Ramsdale and another on a consolation finish from Newcastle's Joe Willock in a 4-0 game.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa are still likely to be in the Champions League next season as England remains set to get five teams into the competition, but the Villans' form has taken a clear dip in this recent stretch run. Not only has Villa had the aforementioned set piece issues all season long, but their defensive metrics have fallen off a cliff in the second half. Since the new year, there are only four clubs conceding an average of two expected goals per match: Luton Town, Sheffield United, Manchester United and Aston Villa. Only two clubs have allowed more chances in that time frame.
They had an uncompetitive 4-1 defeat to Manchester City in a tough midweek spot two weeks ago. Villa lost 4-0 to Tottenham at home and then also blew a 2-0 lead against Brentford last Saturday in a 3-3 draw. Villa have allowed at least 1.5 expected goals in 11 consecutive Premier League matches. Even when facing lowly Luton, Sheffield United or a very shorthanded Wolves team without their three best attackers, the Villans have been exposed defensively and struggled to keep any control over matches. Arsenal struggle most against teams with solid defenses who can limit Arsenal’s explosiveness and turn the match into a bit of a stalemate. Villa’s defensive approach will leave plenty of space for the Gunners to exploit in behind.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Prediction
Arsenal struggle most against teams with solid defenses who can limit Arsenal’s explosiveness and turn the match into a bit of a stalemate. Villa’s defensive approach will leave plenty of space for the Gunners to exploit in behind. The Gunners' defense being as elite as it has been gives them a ton of margin for error as a favorite, and I'd back Arsenal to win by multiple goals.
The biggest difference between Arsenal in the first half of the season and the second has been improved transition attacking play to better run up the score on inferior opponents. We've seen it with Crystal Palace, Newcastle and others that have come to The Emirates and left with a multi-goal defeat. I'd lay Arsenal -1.5 up to -130.
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 (-130 or better)
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