Arsenal vs Brentford Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Stephanie Meek/Getty. Pictured: Ethan Pinnock.
Arsenal vs Brentford Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -450 |
| Brentford Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Arsenal look to keep pace in the Premier League title race when they host Brentford.
The Gunners are flying in the Premier League at the moment, winning their last seven matches by a combined score of 33 to 3. The Gunners are not only the best defensive team in England, but in all of Europe as well. They have an important Champions League encounter with Porto on Tuesday, so it's important to take care of business here at home against a pesky Brentford side.
Brentford got things steered back in the right direction, drawing with Chelsea 2-2 at home to give themselves a little breathing room from the relegation zone. The Bees have been struggling to put together results, but they are starting to get some key players healthy and can make a run here at the end of the season when the schedule lightens up after this match against Arsenal.
Read on for my Arsenal vs Brentford prediction.
Arsenal
If you are wondering why Arsenal are now at the level of both Liverpool and Manchester City, there are many reason, but it has mainly come down to the fact that they are the best out of possession team in the world.
Arsenal's hybrid high press has been completely devastating to teams trying to play out of the back. Brentford are going to send a lot of balls long over the press, which is not an issue for Arsenal because not only are they the best transition defense, but they have allowed the second-lowest long-ball completion rate in the Premier League at 45%.
During Arsenal's seven match winning run in the Premier League, not a single opponent has created over 0.5 expected goals against them. That is not a fluke either because in their 27 Premier League matches, Arsenal have only allowed a total of 18.4 expected goals and eight big scoring chances.
Arsenal have been scoring goals at an incredibly high rate and it's because they have become the most difficult team to prepare for if you play a passive low block. Over their last seven matches they have been playing Trossard or Havertz as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid.
The basic principle of dropping Trossard/Havertz and Odegaard deep in build up is Arsenal then playing a 4-2-2-2 in possession, which allows them to overload the center of the pitch and play right through teams having a 3 v 2 superiority in build up all over the pitch.
Brentford
This is a really tough matchup for Brentford given the way their defense has been playing recently. When the two them met on November 25th, Brentford wree in a much better place defensively.
Brentford’s defense has been a mess for a while and it’s a mixture of a couple of different things. First, Mark Flekken has been the worst goalkeeper in the Premier League. He has a -6.7 post shot xG +/-. Second, they are making so many dumb uncharacteristic defensive mistakes that have led to high chances. Last season, they were one of the best teams outside the Big Six at preventing big scoring chances, but over their last nine matches they have conceded 12 big scoring chances and are allowing 2.05 expected goals per match.
What Brentford are going to do is sit in a 5-3-2 out of possession and try to force Arsenal to break them down. In the past, they've been really good in these scenarios, but due to injuries to Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey, their two fullbacks, they've been exploited in wide areas. That is a massive problem when you are facing two of the best wingers in the Premier League consistently in 1 v 1 situations.
The offense though has been better for the Bees ever since Ivan Toney returned to the lineup. Through a difficult schedule of playing Manchester City twice, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea, Brentford are averaging 1.30 xG per 90 minutes with him playing up top.
Arsenal vs Brentford
Prediction
Normally, this would be a slam dunk spot to back Brentford given their history of taking points of the Big Six, but given the way their defense has been trending recently, it's really hard to see how they are going to keep Arsenal at bay with bad goalkeeping play and bad defending in wide areas.
Brentford had a couple of recent encounters with Manchester City, which is a good barometer for what they are going to face in this match, and they weren't that great offensively in either meeting, creating a total of 1.4 expected goals. They are a transition-based team facing the best transition defense in the world, so it's really hard to see how they create over one expected goal in this match.
With that in mind, I like the value on Arsenal to win to nil at -120.
Pick: Arsenal to win to nil (-120 via bet365)
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