Arsenal vs Porto Odds, Prediction, Pick | Champions League Match Preview
Diego Souto/Getty. Pictured: Kiwior and Evanilson.
Arsenal vs Porto Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -450 |
| Porto Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -167 / +130 |
Arsenal look to overcome a one goal deficit on aggregate when they host Porto in their Champions League second leg tie.
Arsenal put up a really poor performance offensively in Portugal and it ended up costing them with Porto scoring a late goal. The Gunners have been perfect in the Premier League in 2024, but as one of the favorites to win the Champions League, it's important for their progression as a club to get through to the quarterfinals.
Porto have a massive opportunity here to get through to the quarterfinals for the first time since they beat Juventus in 2021. They put up the best defensive performance that anybody has had against Arsenal this season, but repeating that at the Emirates is going be a massive task.
Read on for my Arsenal vs. Porto prediction and Champions League match preview.
Arsenal
Arsenal may have only created 0.09 xG from open play in the first meeting, but the ball was only in play for 51 minutes due to Porto constantly clearing the ball and fouling to try and disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm.
The problem is that consistently getting Arsenal into set piece opportunities is a very dangerous game to play. Arsenal had a couple of opportunities off of corners in the first leg and if Porto continually give them set piece opportunities, the Gunners are going to score one of them.
Since Arsenal’s rhythm got disrupted consistently and any break they had in transition Porto just fouled them, it was really hard for them to do really anything offensively from open play. There is hope here in the second leg offensively, as Gabriel Jesus is making his return to the lineup, which will give Arsenal a presence in the box.
In the previous meeting they started Leandro Trossard up top and were constantly dropping him deep in build up to create numerical superiority and they were having success getting into Porto’s final third, but once they got there they either got fouled, the ball went out for a corner or Arsenal weren't clinical enough with their line-breaking passes.
Porto
Porto were really good defensively in the first meeting, but they kept relying on fouls and the ball going out of play to beat Arsenal, so a lot of this second leg is unfortunately going to come down to refereeing. If they call it tight like the first leg then Porto probably will have a lot of success again, but if they let them play a little bit and Arsenal can develop a little bit of rhythm then Porto are going to have a some difficulties.
The problem for Porto is if they can repeat the same game plan here at the Emirates. They were basically perfect out of possession, defended set pieces brilliantly and limited Arsenal to just 12 penalty box touches. Repeating that at the Emirates is a much different story because in their last road trip to an elite club in the Champions League they were pretty badly beaten by Barcelona, giving up 21 shots and 1.8 expected goals.
They have been in good form defensively in the Portuguese Primiera Liga, only conceding 3.2 expected goals over their last six matches with one of those being a 5-0 beatdown of Benfica.
While the defensive performance for Porto was fantastic, they didn't really threaten Arsenal on the break. They had one huge chance off of a deflection, but other than that their other five shots accumulated to just 0.25 expected goals.
Arsenal vs Porto
Prediction
If this match plays out anything like the first one, it's going to be an incredibly slow, grind it out type of match where Porto sit in their low defensive block and dare Arsenal to break them down. Porto are also most likely going to try and muck up the game with clearances and fouls, so the ball is in play for as little as possible.
Arsenal have been flying in the Premier League, but their last match against Brentford doesn't really give me much confidence that they are going to easily flip this tie in their favor. The Bees did a really good job forcing Arsenal into circulating the ball around their defensive block and limiting the Gunners playing through the middle and Porto can do the exact same.
I only have 2.41 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 3 (-119 via bet365)
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