Arsenal vs Sevilla Prediction | Wednesday Champions League Preview
James Gill/Getty. Pictured: Bukayo Saka.
Arsenal vs Sevilla Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -334 |
| Sevilla Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Arsenal will host Sevilla in one of the premier UEFA Champions League matches on Wednesday afternoon.
The Gunners currently sit atop Group H with a two-win and one-loss record. One of those wins was already against Sevilla, where they snuck out with a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture. A win over Sevilla on Wednesday would all but clinch their place in the knockout rounds.
Meanwhile, Los Rojiblancos find themselves third in the group with just two points from three matches. A defeat here could be all she wrote for the Europa League holders.
Here is my breakdown and Arsenal vs Sevilla prediction in my latest Champions League picks.
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Arsenal
Arsenal will look to bounce back from their emotional 1-0 loss over the weekend against Newcastle United, where manager Mikal Arteta used the word "disgrace" to describe the officiating that took place.
He and his young men will need to quickly flip the page if they are to defeat Sevilla in back-to-back matches. As if defeating a team twice in the Champions League wasn't a big enough task, the Gunners will have to do so with an injury-riddled squad. As of Tuesday, Martin Odegaard's return is still unknown, while Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith Rowe and Thomas Partey are confirmed out for Wednesday's showdown.
The Odegaard mystery is a key factor in this match. And at this point, even if he is to return, it will more than likely be as a substitute. His impact on this Gunners side is greater than that of any other player. It is not just the leadership that the team captain brings on the pitch; he is the center of their attacking creativity. Arsenal failed to score without him against Newcastle, breaking their 17th-game goalscoring streak in all competitions. They also only recorded one shot on target, the fewest in any game this season.
However, whether Odeggardd suits up or not, Arteta will like his side's chances to get back to their winning ways, especially in front of their home fans. Arsenal haven't lost at home in the group stage since 2015.
Sevilla
Unlike Arsenal, who are fighting for a title in their domestic league, Sevilla are hoping to just stay in theirs. They currently sit 15th in the La Liga table and are only four points clear of the relegation zone.
However, they may be finding a tad bit of form as they have secured three draws in their last three league matches, including their 1-1 result against Real Madrid. Some of that is credited to new manager Diego Alonso, who was brought in for the previous manager Jose Luis Mendilibar on October 10th. Since his takeover, his only loss was the 2-1 defeat to Arsenal.
The big tactic shift Alonso is bringing to this Sevilla side is the overloading of the wings. They are constantly playing the ball wide and trying to cross it into the penalty area, similar to what he did when he was the coach of Uruguay's National Team. In Sevilla's last two home games, they have averaged 11 accurate crosses into the box per match. Moreover, their goal against Arsenal in the last fixture came from a successful service.
Defensively, Alonso is still sorting out the best strategy. At Uruguay, he would coach his team to recover the ball as quickly as possible with medium to high pressure. However, that strategy may not be in play with the current personnel of Sevilla, who are the oldest team in the UCL with an average age of 31 years. They have allowed six goals in their five games with Alonso.
Arsenal vs Sevilla
Prediction
There are plenty of twists and turns to come for this Group H, and one of those feels like they are coming on Wednesday. Every match for Sevilla should be viewed as a can't lose game from here on out. And fortunately for them, they are at their best when their backs are against the wall.
Sergio Ramos has been confirmed out for Sevilla with a calf injury. And while that is a big knock to their leadership and a team struggling with defensive discipline, the Arsenal injuries are just as impactful.
It was two moments of magic from Gabriel Jesus that got the victory for the Gunners in the reverse fixture, but now that he is gone along with a questionable Odegaard, I expect their offense to be stagnant and for Saka to find the ball less.
Moreover, Sevilla will likely sit in more and try to counter on the break three outside service, as a draw at the Emirates would put them in a great place for their two final matches against PSV and Lens.
Back Los Rojiblancos on the spread.
Pick: Sevilla +1.5 (-105 via PointsBet)
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