Picking Premier League Props for Every Saturday Match
After a lively mid-week slate of matches that produced upset results and memorable debuts, the Premier League’s weekend lineup includes more interesting storylines, as Manchester United and Arsenal look to bounce back from damaging defeats.
Once again, I’ve immersed myself in the prop markets for every one of Saturday’s EPL games and picked out a value prop for each to make your weekend wagering a little bit more lively.
Burnley vs. Manchester City
7:30 a.m. ET
Burnley is one of the Premier League’s success stories, and if Sean Dyche isn’t a manager of the year candidate, there’s something wrong. But despite their successes this season, their recent form has been a little iffy. That’s not what you want when you’re about to welcome Man City to your home turf.
City in in form, and so is their Belgian playmaker Kevin De Bruyne. He’s scored in his last three games in all competitions.
And in a game where Burnley is likely to play two banks of four and dare City to break them down, it may well be a midfielder that breaks the hosts’ resistance.
VALUE PROP: De Bruyne is +180 (Bovada and William Hill) to score at any time, but William Hill is offering a special on “KDB” scoring in a Manchester City win, at +200. It’s not a massive enhancement, but it’s one worth taking.
Bournemouth vs. Stoke
10 a.m. ET
Bournemouth’s confidence will be sky high after their stunning 3-0 away win at Chelsea, and on Saturday they return to their Dean Court home to face a Stoke City side that hasn’t won away from home in the league since October.
And if we’re looking for a confident scorer, look no further than Bournemouth hitman Callum Wilson. He’s averaging a goal every other game since Christmas and opened the scoring in a Man of the Match performance against Chelsea in mid-week.
? Congratulations @CallumWilson, voted our Man of the Match from last night’s win against Chelsea with 53% of the vote.
— AFC Bournemouth ? (@afcbournemouth) February 1, 2018
VALUE PROP: Wilson is a +105 shot to score at an time, but I like the +350 (William Hill, Bovada) on the Bournemouth striker to score the first goal of the game.
Brighton vs. West Ham
10 a.m. ET
Brighton is in free fall, having won just once in their last 14 EPL games, and they have their work cut out on Saturday when they take on a resurgent West Ham, which has found a way to pick up points at a crucial stage in the season.
The Hammers haven’t lost in the Premier League since Christmas, though they’ve only won twice during that six-game run, drawing the other four.
VALUE PROP: With Brighton desperate for points and West Ham adept at securing draws, the stalemate looks like a solid bet here. But with both sides failing to score more than once in a game in each of their last four outings in all competitions, a low-scoring affair seems the safer bet. Take Under 2.5 goals @ -180 (Bovada).
Leicester vs. Swansea
10 a.m. ET
Once cast adrift at the bottom of the Premier League standings, Swansea City is fighting back. Back-to-back wins over Liverpool and Arsenal have seen them reel in their rivals at the bottom of the standings, and now they have a fighting chance of survival. But on Saturday they face a Leicester side which is unbeaten at home in its last three EPL games.
In each of those three games, Leicester scored at least twice, and against Swansea’s still-shaky defense, there’s decent value on The Foxes repeating the feat against the Swans this weekend.
VALUE PROP: Leicester Over 1.5 Goals @ -110 (Bovada)
Manchester United vs. Huddersfield
10 a.m. ET
Manchester United is a wounded animal right now after being comprehensively outplayed by Tottenham in a mid-week game, and that spells bad news for Huddersfield Town.
Huddersfield is on a four-game losing run, and they’ll visit Old Trafford like lambs to the slaughter, with Jose Mourinho’s United side fired up to get back to winning ways in emphatic fashion after their shocking performance that featured a Phil Jones own goal.
I fancy Alexis Sanchez to net his maiden United goal in his home debut, but with him odds-on to score at any time, there’s not much value there. So we’ll take a look at the goal props for value instead.
VALUE PROP: Huddersfield conceded three to Liverpool, two to Stoke and four to West Ham, and a pumped-up United could well match the Hammers’ total. Manchester United (-2 goals) looks like a gift at +115 (William Hill), but I fancy them to win by an even more lopsided margin, so I’ll pick +275 on United (-3 goals), also with William Hill.
West Brom vs. Southampton
10 a.m. ET
Southampton is in serious danger of being dragged into the relegation dogfight. They’ve won just once in their last 16 Premier League games and are sliding down the table.
But, amazingly, they’re facing a side with an even worse run of form. Host West Brom has picked up just one win in its last 23 league games.
It’s likely we’ll see one of these two sides earn a much-needed win, and while we can’t rely on the two sides keeping clean sheets, we think the arrival of Daniel Sturridge to West Brom from Liverpool could prove the difference.
VALUE PROP: Sturridge is +188 to score at any time, but with his pace often a factor against tiring defenses, I like the +500 (William Hill) on him to score the game’s last goal.
Arsenal vs. Everton
12:30 p.m. ET
The late kickoff at The Emirates Stadium sees Arsenal play host to Everton, where there’s a storyline we’ve seen so many times just waiting to be written.
Arsenal offloaded Theo Walcott to Everton during the January transfer window after never really getting the best out of the forward. Walcott was given the chance to shine in his Everton debut in mid-week, and he rewarded boss Sam Allardyce with both goals in a 2-1 home win over Leicester.
— Everton (@Everton) January 31, 2018
It’s remarkable how often we see players come back to haunt their own clubs, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Walcott did just that in Saturday’s live TV game.
VALUE PROP: Arsenal’s defense is all over the place, while Walcott has pace to burn and a point to prove. The +400 on Theo scoring at any time against his old side this weekend looks too good to pass up.