Aston Villa vs Brentford Picks, Prediction & Odds: Bet the Bees?
Steve Bardens/Getty. Pictured: Ivan Toney.
Aston Villa vs Brentford Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -143 |
| Brentford Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Aston Villa look to maintain their spot in the top five when they host Brentford at Villa Park.
Aston Villa had one of their worst performances of the season on Wednesday against Manchester City, getting beat 4-1. Unai Emery's side has dealt with a lot of injuries lately and it will be a challenge to hold onto their spot in the top four. This will be another really difficult test against a good Brentford side.
The Bees have performed much better than their results indicate, but are still somewhat in the relegation fight. Brentford are healthy enough to have a starting XI that resembled the team that finished in the top half last year. They blew a 1-0 lead against Aston Villa in the previous meeting, so they will be out for revenge on Saturday.
Here is how I'm betting Aston Villa vs Brentford.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa are going through a bit of an injury crisis at the moment. Going into this match, Ollie Watkins, Emiliano Martinez and Jacob Ramsey are questionable with Boubacar Kamara and Matty Cash are out. That is potentially four of their five main starters that have helped them get into the top four.
If Ollie Watkins cannot play, that will be a massive loss. Jhon Duran did score against Manchester City, but he cannot replace the production that Watkins has put up this year. Watkins has scored 16 goals, provided 10 assists and has a 0.69 xG + xA per 90 minute rate. Not to mention that he's also getting 3.07 shots per 90 minutes. So, trying to break down a solid low block like Brentford's without your best attacking player, is not a good situation.
These are not the types of matchups that favor Aston Villa. By nature, they are a build out of the back team that wants opponents to press them. Ollie Watkins has scored countless goals this year making runs off the opponent's back line. Brentford are a very versatile team out of possession in the fact that they can play an elite 5-3-2 low block or they can man to man press high and cause a lot of problems.
Aston Villa have over-performed this season and were always due to regress, which is really starting to happen with all of these injuries. Since they beat Brentford on December 17th, Aston Villa have a -1.5 xGD when over the first half of the season they had a +7.5 xGD.
Brentford
Brentford have gone through this really bad spell and just can't find a way to get the results they deserve. To highlight just how unlucky the Bees have been, they have lost 12 of their last 17 matches and have a -16 goal differential, but only a -6.2 expected goal differential. In addition to that, they have played Manchester City twice, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Brighton and Wolves twice.
This is also about to be a much different Brentford team than the last one that faced Aston Villa because not only is Ivan Toney available, but Bryan Mbuemo, who has missed the last 13 matches, is now available. That means for the first time Brentford will have their first choice front two strikers available. Mbuemo is so important to this Brentford team because of his pace and finishing ability in transition. So far this season he has a 0.79 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League.
If you want a good example of what Brentford looks like with all of their attackers healthy, the Manchester United match is a perfect example. In that match, Brentford created over three expected goals, took 31 shots and had 85 touches in the penalty area.
Brentford can also have a good advantage here on set pieces. The Bees have created the second-most expected goals off of set pieces this season and will be facing the worst set piece defense in Premier League as Aston Villa have allowed the highest xG per set piece.
Aston Villa vs Brentford
Prediction
With all of the injuries that Aston Villa have at the moment, there is no reason they should be laying this big of a number against a really underrated Brentford side even if they are at home.
The biggest problem that Aston Villa have run into is when teams can exploit their biggest weakness of defending set pieces. Brentford scored their lone goal in the previous meeting off of a corner and will be incredibly dangerous on set pieces, especially if Martinez is not in goal.
Ollie Watkins not being available could be detrimental for Aston Villa. The match against Manchester City was the first one that he's missed all season and Aston Villa were only able to create 0.80 expected goals.
I only have Aston Villa projected at -102, so I like the value on Brentford +1 at -134.
Pick: Brentford +1 (-134 via BetRivers)
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