Athletic Bilbao vs Almeria Odds, Picks, Predictions | La Liga Match Preview

Friday, Oct. 6

3 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Athletic Bilbao Odds	-250
Almeria Odds	+700
Draw	+400
Over / Under	2.5  -175 / +135

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

To open La Liga action this weekend, Athletic Bilbao welcomes Almería to the Basque country on Friday night for match day nine.

This has been a solid start to the campaign for Bilbao, coming into this fixture in sixth with 14 points.

Meanwhile, the opposite can be said about the visitors, who are the only winless side in the division at the foot of the league table.

One interesting trend in the Spanish top flight has been the amount of goals in games, and I believe we should have more in this contest as well.

Let's dive into Athletic Bilbao vs Almeria as they duel on Friday afternoon.

After the season-opening loss to Real Madrid, Athletic went the next six matches without a loss before falling in the Basque Derby last weekend to Real Sociedad.

Beyond the positive results, manager Ernesto Valverde has to be happy with how his side is playing. Bilbao own a +5.2 xGDiff according to fbref.com, which is good for fourth in La Liga.

One of the keys to the great form has been the play of attackers Iñaki Williams and Gorka Guruzeta, who have combined for seven goals and a pair of assists.

Once you add in the fact that Athletic is top five in xG and big chances allowed, this is a side that should be pushing for European qualification this season.

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Almería have been one of the main contributors to the high-scoring matches in La Liga. However, the defensive issues have kept them from picking up a victory.

The leaky defense led to the dismissal of manager Vicente Moreno, who was already under pressure after the club splashed the cash in the transfer market this summer.

On the year, Almería are in the bottom three in multiple defensive categories, including xG allowed per 90 minutes, big chances surrendered per match and opponents’ shots per game.

If this isn’t corrected quickly, it is going to be a hard time for the club to stay in the top division for another campaign.

When I look at this match, I want to back the host, but I need a better price than what is being offered on the moneyline or Asian handicaps.

So, my best is a single game parlay, pairing an Athletic victory with the total flying over two goals at -115 odds at bet365.

I pointed out the bad defensive numbers for the visitors, which isn’t good against a top attack in Bilbao. The Basque club has averaged 1.73 xG and 3.25 big chances per game at home this season.

This is one of the main reasons why three of four home matches have finished with more than a pair of goals. Meanwhile, Almería’s fixtures on the road have cleared this same number in two of three games.

I just really don’t see the defense improving under an interim manager. It is a defensive unit that has failed to keep a clean sheet and allowed multiple goals in all but one fixture.

Athletic’s struggles have typically come against the top sides in the division. Luckily, this is not how I would classify this opponent, which should mean they have success on Friday night.

Pick: SGP – Athletic Club ML & Over 2 (-115)