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Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City Betting Prediction, Picks: Underdogs Live At Home

Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City Betting Prediction, Picks: Underdogs Live At Home article feature image

Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund standout Karim Adeyemi.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City Odds

Dortmund Odds+420
Man City Odds-175
Over/Under3.5 (+124 / -152)
Day | TimeTuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund sit comfortably in first and second place in Champions League Group G and both are in prime position to advance to the knockout round. Tuesday's match in Dortmund will likely decide the group winner, with City needing a draw or win to clinch the group.

The two sides played a very even match in Manchester in September in the first matchup. City roared back from a 1-0 deficit and won 2-1 at home on a late winner from former Dortmund striker Erling Haaland.

There wasn't much in that game from a chance-creation perspective as the Blacks and Yellows effectively stymied City's dominant attack but also failed to create much consistently against the City defense.

The market has trended downward with regards to the total in this second meeting. After a total of 3.5 (-110 both sides) in the first meeting that went under, the total is down to 3.25 (-110) for Tuesday's reverse fixture.

Borussia Dortmund Creating More Opportunities

Dortmund have made a clear choice to sit Anthony Modeste as the prime striker and instead opt to play youngster Youssoufa Moukoko in that role. He's produced much more than Modeste in terms of shots and expected goals (xG) this season.

Moukoko has five 90s under his belt this year and is producing 0.58 xG per 90 and 3.2 shots per match. In seven matches, Modeste is at just 2.3 shots and 0.44 xG per 90. Modeste seems much more suited to his rule as a super sub for Dortmund, especially given his advanced age and lack of pace to threaten in behind.

Dortmund's attack has regressed as a whole with the loss of Haaland and the cooling off of their finishing when you compare them to last year. But, they still remain dangerous with Marco Reus set to return to the lineup, Gio Reyna fit and firing and Donyell Malen back healthy too.

They've been considerably better from a chance creation perspective at home this season, with seven of their nine best attacking outputs by xG coming in front of their home fans.

Dortmund will be without midfielder Salih Ozcan due to suspension, but they'll have Emre Can back healthy in the midfield to help break up play. Combine him with Jude Bellingham — who is in the midst of a superstar breakout season with goals in four straight CL matches — and their midfield isn't going to be overwhelmed at home.

Manchester City Looking At Some Regression

It's hard to poke holes in Manchester City's body of work at this point in the season, but you can point to defensive injuries and finishing regression as a source of where they might be overvalued in the market. John Stones may be back for this match but is unlikely to be rushed if he's not 100% fit.

Kyle Walker remains out with an injury and the result is that City could be vulnerable in transition.

Walker is critical for cleaning up messes over the top and we saw Liverpool expose that at Anfield a few weeks ago. Dortmund can potentially exploit that, especially with Modeste not as the focal point of the attack.

Manchester City have scored 36 goals this season from 24.9 xG too. Haaland is a great finisher and since he takes most of the shots, it shouldn't be a huge shock that City finishes as well as they do. However, there's a point in which it's no longer sustainable to maintain that level of finishing.

Dortmund did an excellent job defending Haaland in the last match, as he had four shots, just 0.3 xG and one shot on target. Of course, that one shot was the winning goal, but the overall defensive game plan was effective from Dortmund.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Bayern Munich closed as a -160 road favorite with a higher total in the Bundesliga at Borussia Dortmund two weeks ago and now Dortmund is an even bigger underdog at home with a slightly lower total in this match. 

Dortmund's improved health situation since that game gives them more of a chance of exposing some flaws in City's defense. As good as they've been defensively overall, you can see some cracks in City's big scoring chance defensive profile.

They've conceded the third fewest big scoring chances, but have also conceded more shots from direct attacks per match than the last two seasons.

My projection has City a bit overvalued in this match, since they've taken money from the -130 moneyline opener to the current -175 moneyline price. At +0.5, I wouldn't have much interest in betting Dortmund. But given the Blacks and Yellows defensive improvements this season, I like them catching a goal at home.

FiveThirtyEight has Manchester City at just 54% to win this game, my own projection makes City -145 and that doesn't get them to being a full goal favorite on the road.

The Pick: Borussia Dortmund +1 (-110)

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