Brighton vs Leicester City EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Dominic Lipinski/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Graham Potter of Brighton & Hove Albion.
Brighton vs. Leicester Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Leicester City finds itself at the bottom of the Premier League table after five matches with just one draw and four losses. The calls to fire manager Brendan Rodgers are growing louder, especially after a lifeless 1-0 defeat at home against Manchester United.
The Foxes have a short turnaround for Sunday’s road match at Brighton & Hove Albion after the host side lost its first match of the season in last Tuesday’s 2-1 road defeat against Fulham.
As for Leicester, the club has played at a relegation level through five matches. And despite preseason expectations, I have no interest in buying low on the Foxes and still show value on the Seagulls at the current number.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton has been consistently undervalued for the better part of two seasons now under manager Graham Potter. The underlying numbers took a huge leap in 2020-21, even though the results didn’t quite show. The results finally came last season and the Seagulls have improved even further in this new season.
Despite losing Neal Maupay, Marc Cucurella and Yves Bissouma in key areas across the pitch, Brighton has reloaded and potentially even improved. The club will probably settle in the upper mid-table again, but by just about any metric it’s a much better side than last season.
Brighton was top half of the league in box entries and progressive passes last season. And while it didn’t result in a ton of attacking output, its defense is where the outfit excelled. The Seagulls defended like a top-six side, smothering big scoring chances — a place where Leicester has thrived.
The Seagulls don’t look quite as ball dominant this year. Potter is playing more direct this season and it’s paying off, as the club is top five in shots produced off direct attacks. This was a major vulnerability for the Foxes last season.
By The Numbers
- 48 — Brighton ranks fifth in passes into the penalty area in the English top flight.
- 5th— The Seagulls have excelled against teams trying to press them and rank fifth in tackle success rate allowed.
The Foxes have three main issues plaguing them for the first five matches. The midfield is struggling to control matches and has pretty ugly ball winning, pressing and progressive passing numbers. They didn’t do a good job of preventing foes from getting into their penalty area and that’s still true.
Two new problems have sprouted for the Foxes in the striker and goalkeeping positions. Jamie Vardy appears to have finally hit the cliff at age 35 where he’s unable to get off consistent shots. He had an excellent non-penalty xG rate last season when healthy, but Vardy has produced nothing.
Vardy has five shots total, no goals. Four of those shots came with Leicester up a man against Chelsea.
The third issue for the Foxes is goalkeeper, where Danny Ward has been the league’s worst goalkeeper by post-shot xG through five games. The sale of Kasper Schmeichel has left them without a EPL quality keeper.
By The Numbers
- 5 — Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has attempted this many total shots in five matches this season.
- 3.8 — The Foxes have the second-fewest xG created in the EPL this campaign.
Betting Analysis & Pick
From a betting market perspective, this might look like a good spot on the Foxes. However, you would have said the same thing prior to the match against Manchester United and lost as well.
Brighton excelled at home against bottom-half sides and completely dominated the midfield last season. The Seagulls have shown signs of doing the same early in the new year and my projections make Brighton a -127moneyline home favorite.
Add in a two-day rest advantage and I’d back the Seagulls at -120 or better.
The Pick: Brighton ML (-115)