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Bundesliga Best Bets: Stuttgart, Wolfsburg and More (Sept. 17-18)

Bundesliga Best Bets: Stuttgart, Wolfsburg and More (Sept. 17-18) article feature image
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Pictured: Lukas Nmecha.
(Sebastian Gollnow/picture alliance via Getty Images)

  • Matchweek 7 in the Bundesliga is underway.
  • Analyst Anthony Dabbundo has found betting value.
  • He has targeted a trio of games and provides his bets and analysis below.

While the Premier League postponed all of its matches following the death of Queen Elizabeth, the rest of the continent went on as scheduled. RB Leipzig won its first match under new manager Marco Rose, 3-0, against Borussia Dortmund. Union Berlin remained at the top of the table with a 1-0 win at Köln via an own goal and Bayern Munich dropped points yet again, this time 2-2 to Stuttgart for its third consecutive draw.

Matchweek 7 in the Bundesliga kicks off on Friday with Mainz hosting Hertha Berlin. Werder Bremen visits Leverkusen on Saturday as Die Werkself looks to build off of its home Champions League victory over Atlético Madrid. Leverkusen have struggled mightily in the Bundesliga with one win in six matches.

Borussia Mönchengladbach returns home in another matchup of Rose against his former club as Leipzig visits Gladbach in the 12:30 p.m. ET match of the week on Saturday. Bayern should get back to its winning ways in a road trip against Augsburg, who I have power rated as the worst team in Germany.

Also on Saturday, Dortmund and Schalke renew their fierce Revierderby rivalry for the first time since Schalke was relegated in 2021.

Here’s my three best bets in the Bundesliga this weekend:

Our 3 Bundesliga Best Bets

VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt

Stuttgart Odds +130
Frankfurt Odds +200
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-144/ +118)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Eintracht Frankfurt had a solid road win in Marseille in the Champions League on Tuesday, but they remain overvalued in the Bundesliga markets. Stuttgart finished the 2021-22 season with a marginally better expected goal difference, even though Frankfurt finished four spots higher in the league table due to variance.

Stuttgart also has comparable underlying numbers in the 2022-23 season and is rated higher in my power ratings of the German top flight. Frankfurt lost Filip Kostic in the summer transfer window and no player completed more crosses into the penalty area in Europe’s top five leagues over the past few seasons.

The attack has fallen off considerably in his departure, excluding a one-off result against Leipzig. Frankfurt produced 0.5 xG at home against Wolfsburg last week, 1.2 against Werder Bremen and 0.4 against Köln in matches prior. They added Randal Kolo Mauni, a forward from Nantes, to try and replace the lost production, but he only averaged 0.3 xG per 90 last season in Ligue 1 and the reality is Frankfurt has never been a consistently above average side under Oliver Glasner. They pulled off a great Europa League run, but they’re now at a rest disadvantage after playing a midweek match and remain a prime fade candidate in Germany.

Stuttgart had really poor chance finishing last season, but is also a league average team and due for positive regression after finishing with a -6 expected goal differential and a -18 actual differential in 2021-22. The market has moved toward Stuttgart and I like them at +130 or better as the slightly better team at home.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Stuttgart ML (+130 or better)

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Borussia Monchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig

Gladbach Odds +200
Leipzig Odds +120
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-172/ +140)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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One week after Marco Rose beat his former team Dortmund 3-0, he’ll have a chance to beat his other former team in Gladbach. Gladbach center back Ko Itakura will be back from suspension in this match to help improve the defense.

Gladbach’s play style profile is really interesting through six matches under new manager Daniel Farke. Only Bayern is using more passes per possession sequence and no team is playing at a slower direct speed pace with the ball. They’ve relied on slower build-up play, a stark contrast to what Gladbach did under past managers Rose and Adi Hütter.

Despite playing Bayern at Bayern, the Foals are top five in open play expected goals allowed and top seven against set pieces. This is a major improvement from last season when Gladbach was a bottom six defense.

Gladbach is 10th in direct attacks in Germany, but ranks second — just behind Bayern — in build-up play attacks. Farke has clearly has had a tactical influence on the Foals and the result should be much less chaos than last season.

With its improved defense and slower play, I think the total is a bit too high here and should be closer to 2.75. I’ll bet the under 3 at -115 or better.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Under 3 goals (-110)

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Union Berlin vs. Wolfsburg

Union Odds -110
Wolfsburg Odds +280
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-114)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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This is a classic buy low, sell high spot in Germany on Sunday. Union Berlin is at the top of the table despite creating the third fewest open play expected goals in the league. Union has a clear method of winning matches — defend deep, attack direct and don’t press nearly as much as the rest of a frenetic Germany. That method is good for being an above average side, but they’re not close to the top of the league or the top four.

Union Berlin has 13 goals from 4.7 xG and regression is coming in a major way. It’s impossible to be unbeaten in the league with a negative expected goal difference for long.

I wrote about and bet on Wolfsburg last week as a great buy low candidate and the same is true after their 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. Wolfsburg is better than its position at 16th in the table would suggest. The attack hasn’t produced clear chances at this point in the season, but we know enough about the solid midfield, ball-progression numbers and the history of its attackers to expect improvement going forward.

Union Berlin is the better team and I don’t have a huge projection edge here, but I like Wolfsburg +0.5 at -115 or better.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Wolfsburg +0.5 (-115 or better)

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