By this time next week we will have another major soccer league back in our betting lives. La Liga is set to join the Bundesliga in its quest to finish off the 2019-20 season beginning on Saturday, June 11.
But until then, Germany's top flight remains the only show in town and Saturday's card features the four of the best teams in the country as Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen are all in action.
Here are our favorite bets for Saturday's soccer action:
BJ Cunningham
Frankfurt vs. Mainz
9:30 a.m. ET
Frankurt come into the match after a mid-week thrashing of relegation side Werder Bremen. Currently sitting in 11th place, Die Adler have all but secured safety, but three more points on Saturday would put any worries of being sucked back into a relegation scrap away.
Mainz is trending in the wrong direction, currently in a relegation battle, sitting only one point above the relegation zone.
Frankfurt is the most underrated team in the Bundesliga. Die Adler’s +5.63 expected goal differential indicates they are unlucky to be sitting in 11th place with a -4 goal differential.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Sneakily, Frankfurt have been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga over the past three matches. Die Adler have earned seven of a possible nine points and has an expected goal differential of +4.29 over that span.
Additionally, most of Die Adler’s success this season has come at the Commerzbank-Arena. Frankfurt boasts a +9.07 expected goal differential at home this season.
Despite the fact that they are not in a relegation spot, currently, Mainz have been terrible this season and their -19.54 is one of the worst marks in the league.
Mainz are winless and have been outscored, 9-3, since the Bundesliga returned to play and their shaky defense will likely have trouble with Frankfurt’s organized attack.
My model has the expected goals at:
- Frankfurt: 2.20 xG
- Mainz: 1.09 xG
Based on those numbers, I make this line Frankfurt -168, so I think there is significant value of Frankfurt to get all three points in this match.
Michael Leboff
RB Leipzig vs. Paderborn
9:30 a.m. ET, FS2
Saturday morning's tilt between second-place RB Leipzig and last-place SC Paderborn is the biggest mismatch on the oddsboard this weekend. When you convert the above odds to implied probability, this is what you get:
- RB Leipzig: 83.7%
- Draw: 10.4%
- Paderborn: 5.9%
I always like to start my handicapping process by trying to make a case for the underdog, especially in matches with lopsided odds, but it's pretty difficult to find a path to success for Paderborn against the second-best team in the Bundesliga.
The one thing that Paderborn can benefit from is RB Leipzig's chaotic form since the Bundesliga returned to action. A total of 17 goals have been scored in Leipzig's last four matches and Die Roten Bullen made things difficult on themselves in a wild 4-2 victory over Koln on Monday.
Despite their recent volatility, RB Leipzig's overall statistical profile remains incredibly impressive, especially on defense where they lead the Bundesliga in expected goals against.
Paderborn's portfolio pales in comparison.
| RB Leipzig | Paderborn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 2.74 | 1.1 |
| Expected goals for per game | 2.48 | 1.16 |
| Goals against per game | 1.15 | 2.1 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.18 | 1.92 |
| Total goals per game | 3.89 | 3.21 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.65 | 3.08 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Anything less than three points would be a disaster for Leipzig. Die Roten Bullen have been terrific this season but their two-point lead over fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen is fragile and means they are still not guaranteed a Champions League spot for 2020-21.
Paderborn, on the other hand, are destined for relegation and their performance against Dortmund in a 6-1 defeat last time out makes you wonder if Steffen Baumgart's side has thrown in the proverbial towel on this season. Trying to figure out a team's motivation is nearly impossible, but if you had to give a "motivational edge" to one side it would be to RB Leipzig, who don't need any more advantages in this match.
There's no value backing Leipzig on the moneyline and tossing them into a parlay seems ill-advised since it won't add much value to your bet, so you may be better off going into other markets if you're looking for action on this match.
In the end, this match feels like a blowout and that's the way I'll be playing it. The odds tell you that a multi-goal victory by Leipzig is the most likely result and thus, I see some value on Leipzig to cover the -3.5 alternate spread at +215.
Four-goal victories aren't easy to come by in soccer but the gap between these two teams in large enough where it's not that hard to envision this game devolving into a romp for RB Leipzig.
Anthony Dabbundo
Hertha Berlin at Borussia Dortmund
12:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Borussia Dortmund enters this weekend seven points behind Bayern Munich with just five matches to play. While catching them is highly improbable, Dortmund will look to extend its gap over third-place RB Leipzig and secure second place as Hertha Berlin visit on Saturday.
Few teams have played better than Hertha since the return, as the Old Lady has won three of four matches and outplayed Leipzig in a 2-2 draw last week.
In those four matches, Hertha has scored 11 goals and conceded two, and outplayed its opponents on expected goals 6.8-4.4.
Hertha’s dominance has been particularly impressive in the second halves of its last four matches, where Berlin has outscored opponents, 9-1. This second half surge isn’t a departure from season-long trends, where Hertha has scored 30 second-half goals to 13 in the first half.
While the second half tends to be higher scoring, this difference is stark. Hertha has shown an ability to pile up goals in a hurry against Hoffenheim and Union, scoring three and four second half goals, respectively.
On the other side, Dortmund have also reserved the overwhelming majority of their scoring to the second half. While they did nab three in the opening half against lowly Schalke, Dortmund have scored one and conceded one in the first 45 minutes of its last three games combined. BVB’s six-goal, second-half explosion against bottom of the table Paderborn showed their attacking potential when the game opened up. Over the course of the season, Dortmund have 54 second-half goals to 26 in the opening frame.
Playing without star striker Erling Haaland against Paderborn, Dortmund took more time to break through and find its first goal, and he will miss Saturday’s match as well.
Defensively, BVB has improved dramatically, conceding three goals in its last eight Bundesliga matches. While they are known for their free-flowing and (remarkly overperforming the metrics) offense, Dortmund’s sturdy defense has propelled them ahead of Leipzig and into second. I’ll bet on that sturdy defense to keep Hertha off the board for at least 45 minutes.
I want no part of betting the full-game under when all evidence suggests that this game could break wide open in the second 45, with two teams playing with nothing to lose throwing numbers forward.
For that reason, I’ll stay away from the full-game under, and lay under 1.5 in the opening 45.
Jeremy Pond
Hertha Berlin at Borussia Dortmund
12:30 p.m. ET, FS2
The final match on the Saturday card pits two clubs both keen on securing all three points.
Dortmund, coming off a 6-1 rout against Paderborn, finds itself seven points behind league leader Bayern Munich and must continue to pile up the wins to have any shot at the Bundesliga title. The hosts, who are fourth in the league with 57.18 expected goals this season, have won seven of their last eight league contests and look to add onto that impressive stat against its foe.
Dortmund does have a minor concern with Erling Braut Håland nursing a minor knee injury, but the star striker did return to normal training this week and should be available.
Like Dortmund, Hertha Berlin has a ton to play for the rest of the way. Hertha Berlin is just four points out of sixth place, which is where Wolfsburg is currently positioned and barely holding onto that Europa League knockout berth. The visitors, who are 11th in the Bundesliga with 38.97 expected goals, enter the match fresh off a 2-0 shutout win against Augsburg, The victory extended Hertha Berlin's unbeaten streak to six games and has to give it a lot of confidence heading to Dortmund.
This really is an interesting match and I see both clubs going after all three points. Both sides need all the points and a draw does nothing for either team.
That said, I am expecting some fireworks and backing both clubs to score as my top play. I am sprinkling a little on the total going over the number and love Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho to score any time due to questions surrounding Haaland's situation and status.
The Bets: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-175); Total Over 3.5 Goals (+100); Jadon Sancho To Score Anytime (-175)
