Tuesday Champions League Betting Odds, Prediction & Picks: PSG vs. Manchester United (Oct. 20)
Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.
- Two European giants meet in Matchday 1 of the Champions League in Paris.
- While PSG is hitting their stride, Manchester United have been less than convincing this season.
- Matt Trebby breaks down both sides, including how he plans to bet this matchup.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester United Odds
|Paris Saint-Germain Odds||-180 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester United Odds||+440 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+360 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3 (-150/+123) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access|
Matchday 1 in the Champions League presents a clash of European giants, as Manchester United travels across the channel to face PSG.
United will have fond memories of the Parc des Princes, having knocked out PSG in the Round of 16 back in March 2019 thanks to a very late penalty from Marcus Rashford. Revenge might not be on the Parisians’ minds, but getting three points to start their European campaign will.
Here’s how both sides enter the game and how to go about betting it.
PSG is one of the most difficult sides to judge when figuring out how to bet them in the Champions League. Their underlying stats in Ligue 1, as you’d expect, are incredible. Les Parisiens top the French top flight with 19.29 xG through seven games, and their 5.42 xGA is fourth.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
PSG was hit by a COVID outbreak early in the league season but has steadied the ship of late in the league. Over their last three games, PSG has given up a combined 1.29 xGA, including 0.14 in the last match against Nimes.
That’s the problem, though. It’s Nimes.
Manager Thomas Tuchel said he expects Neymar to be fit for this matchup after resting against Nimes, which means the Brazilian superstar will join Kylian Mbappe in attack.
The rest of the PSG squad is up in the air, though. Midfielder Leandro Paredes left the Nimes match with a thigh injury, while new signing Danilo Pereira has been isolated as part of COVID-19 protocol. Julian Draxler also missed the weekend match.
In defense, Marquinhos’ status is uncertain, but Presnel Kimpembe and Abdou Diallo are a strong deputy pairing.
The underlying stats suggest Manchester United have been quite fortunate to start the new Premier League season. United ranks 13th in xG at 5.76 through four matches, and their shocking 9.03 xGA is second-highest in the league.
The Red Devils came out of the international break with a 4-1 win over Newcastle that came with three goals after the 85th minute to flatter the scoreline in their favor, but their first three league games were all causes for concern.
United has suffered home defeats to Crystal Palace and Tottenham, the latter of which was a 6-1 loss that saw their only goal come through a — you guessed it — Bruno Fernandes penalty.
From open play, United is at 2.85 xG through its first four league games and 6.25 xGA. The win over Newcastle was crucial in securing three points, especially with Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton coming up in their next three league games.
Paul Pogba missed out against Newcastle, apparently because of nagging injuries picked up during the international break, but he is fit and among United’s traveling party to Paris. Striker Edinson Cavani will not be ready for his debut, but Anthony Martial will return to the squad after being suspended for the match against Newcastle.
PSG-Manchester United pick
On paper, PSG is on fire and Manchester United is a dumpster fire. The Parisians will be happy to have a fully fit Neymar, although the rest of the squad is uneven due to injuries.
It’s tough to see United turning up for this one given the current run of form. The win in Newcastle, while again nice, did not feature a dominant performance that would make bettors confident going into this matchup.
I like Tuchel’s team to win, but given the uncertainty surrounding PSG’s squad, I think the best bet is to parlay the moneyline, which is currently -186.
I’d pair the moneyline with over 3 goals, which is -121 on DraftKings, to get you to +181. I’d expect goals, but with how reliant United is on penalties of late, the total here provides some security. The talent is definitely there for United to stick with the hosts chance for chance, and I’d expect them to find the net at least once at the Parc des Princes.
The PICK: Parlay PSG moneyline (-186) | Over 3 goals (-121)