What Bettors Should Know for Tuesday’s Champions League Matches
Reuters. Pictured: Tottenham’s Harry Kane
- The Champions League enters a pivotal stage with teams playing their fourth of six group games.
- Tuesday's matches are full of intriguing 3 p.m ET starts including Barcelona-Inter Milan, PSG-Napoli and Dortmund-Atletico Madrid.
- With several teams needing a victory, there's plenty of value on the board and I've picked out three value plays.
Every club is still alive to advance to the Champions League knockout round, but that could change drastically by Tuesday night.
Several clubs need to secure wins including Tottenham (vs. PSV) and Monaco (vs. Club Brugge), while others would be happy with a draw like Dortmund (at Atletico Madrid) and Barcelona (at Inter Milan).
Before getting to each match, let’s take a quick look at the biggest line moves since opening.
Biggest Line Moves
There’s a lot on the line Tuesday and I’ve picked out three value plays while breaking down the betting market for the entire board
2018-19 Champions League Season Record: 5-5-1 (+1.22 units, 12.2% ROI)
>> All odds and betting percentages as of Monday at 6 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Champions League updates and track all your bets.
Liverpool at Red Star Belgrade (12:55 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Liverpool (-560), Red Star (+1460), Draw (+655)
Total: 3 (o-121)
Liverpool crushed Red Star Belgrade, 4-0, at Anfield just a couple weeks ago, and will be looking to do the same when they travel to Serbia. Their odds of -560 suggest they’ll do just that.
Bettors are either parlaying the Liverpool moneyline, or taking the Liverpool goal line (-2), and those are the only two plays worth making in this match.
Club Brugge at Monaco (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Brugge (+260), Monaco (+110), Draw (+265)
Total: 2.5 (o-130)
These clubs drew, 1-1, in their most recent group stage encounter, and are both tied for last place in Group A with one point apiece.
Another draw won’t do either of them any good since both need a win to have a real chance of advancing. The majority of public betting is on Monaco, but the line has barely budged since opening.
Odds have shifted toward the Over 2.5, and that’s where I think the true value in this match is. Once either team takes a lead, desperation for a comeback could make it very open, and this total could even reach 3 goals by kickoff.
Galatasaray at Schalke (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Galatasaray (+605), Schalke (-180), Draw (+305)
Total: 2.5 (u-121)
Galatasary and Schlake ended in a 0-0 draw in their most recent Champions League match, a result that has both of them trailing FC Porto in Group D.
Schalke have the clear advantage at home and have moved from -150 to -180 since odds opened. Galatasaray played their rivals in the Turkish league last weekend in a match that ended in a brawl, so they may not be in the best position on Tuesday.
Public bettors are still taking a shot on the underdog, making them good fade material. Even after the line move, I’d feel safe including Schalke in a moneyline parlay.
Lokomotiv Moscow at FC Porto (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Lokomotiv (+840), Porto (-280), Draw (+430)
Total: 3 (u-130)
FC Porto are back at home with a firm grasp on Group D, and they have a five-game win streak in all competitions. Lokomotiv Moscow have dominated domestic play but are without a point in the Champions League.
Bettors are riding both the Porto moneyline (-280) and spread (-1.5), and not giving Lokomotiv Moscow much attention at all. Odds are very accurate at the moment but I’d still feel confident including FC Porto moneyline into a parlay.
Dortmund at Atletico Madrid (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Dortmund (+345), Atletico (-105), Draw (+250)
Total: 2.5 (u-125)
Dortmund rolled Atletico Madrid, 4-0, in Germany just a couple weeks ago. It was the worst defeat in the Diego Simeone’s 392-match tenure at Atleti.
This game will only be aired on the Univision Deportes app and B/R Live, but I’m very curious to see how Atletico Madrid respond, as another loss in the group stage could prove costly.
Dortmund will bring a ton of confidence into this match, even at the difficult venue of Wanda Metropolitano. A point will probably be good enough for both teams to advance, and I like the value on the draw (+250), especially with some sharp money on it.
Barcelona at Inter Milan (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Barcelona (+100), Inter (+255), Draw (+260)
Total: 2.5 (o-120)
It appears that Leo Messi (arm) could be back for Barcelona as he’s traveled and practiced ahead of Tuesday’s match. Barcelona, however, have been very strong without Messi in the lineup, winning 51 of 63 games without him since 2010, and all three games this season. They’re extremely difficult to beat whether he’s in or out.
Barcelona are getting a ton of support and are a very trendy road team at plus-money. As usual I’ll be rooting for Messi and company, but Inter Milan are playing too well in Serie A to ignore. We could see the home side pull off a mini-upset here.
PSV Eindhoven at Tottenham (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Tottenham (-255), PSV (+710), Draw (+425)
Total: 3 (o-140)
Tottenham held a lead at PSV in their last group match but again conceded late to drop points, drawing 2-2 and leaving them tied at the bottom of Group B. Spurs could be in huge danger of advancing even with a victory at home Tuesday.
While they’re still a strong club, things just don’t seem to be gelling for Tottenham yet, and it’s hard for me to trust them at -255. Public bettors seem to agree, and I don’t see any value except maybe the PSV goal line of +1.5.
PSG at Napoli (3 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: PSG (+140), Napoli (+190), Draw (+260)
Total: 3 (o-105)
Napoli secured a 2-2 draw in Paris in the previous group match, a game where PSG were huge favorites to win (and one I was dead wrong on).
PSG are still the “favorites” on the road but they’ve available at +140 odds, while Napoli are +190. A win by either team would let them control their own destiny in advancing to the knockout stage.
Public bettors have come in on both sides while avoiding the draw entirely. I’d love to go contrarian and bet another stalemate, but I think this game will end in a victory by either club.
- Monaco/Club Brugge Over 2.5 (-135)
- Schalke and FC Porto Parlay (+111)
- Atletico Madrid/Dortmund Draw (+250)