Chelsea vs. Malmö Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction: Total Has Value With Blues a Massive Favorite

Chelsea vs. Malmö Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction: Total Has Value With Blues a Massive Favorite article feature image
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Mike Hewitt/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea goalkeeper Edouard Mendy.

  • Reigning Champions League winner Chelsea gets a visit from longshot Malmö in Wednesday's group stage action.
  • The Blues are massive favorites to roll past their Swedish foes, which is what Brett Pund thinks will happen via a low-scoring affair.
  • Check out below the total he's targeted for this affair to stay under at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs. Malmö Odds

Chelsea Odds -1200
Malmö Odds +2000
Draw +1200
Over/Under 3.5 (+115 / -135)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Chelsea will be looking to get its Champions League campaign back on track Wednesday when it hosts Swedish champion Malmö at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues come into fixture with a win over Zenit and loss at Italian giant Juventus, while the visitors have been blown out in both group-stage games by a combined seven goals.

The English club has only lost two of its last 48 home fixtures in Champions League action, and everything in this one points to another convincing victory for their reigning champion.

Let’s dive into this game to see where the value lies in this Group H matchup.

Chelsea Maintaining Dominance in Europe

The momentum from last season’s UCL title has carried into this year for Chelsea, which enters the game with sole possession of first place in the English top flight with 19 points highlighted by six victories in eight games.

Manager Thomas Tuchel’s team has been steady so far this year, ranking in the top half of the EPL in expected goals (11.9) and xG difference (+1.8), according to fbref.com.

There have been 12 different goal scorers for the Blues in their domestic season so far, but everything runs through star striker Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian international leads the team with four total goals in all competitions, which includes the winner against Zenit in the opening European match.

Although the defensive numbers aren’t as dominated as last season when Tuchel took over, Chelsea is still in the top half of the Premier League in xGA (10.1) and posted 1.8 in the same stat in its first two Champions League fixtures.

Lengthy Season Catching Up With Malmö

Malmö has had one of the longest European campaigns so far, advancing through the first qualifying round to make this fixture its 11th Champions League match of the season.

The Swedish club was able to get by Riga FC, HJK, Rangers and Ludogorets over two legs, but the same positive results haven’t carried over into the group stages. In the four matches where xG have been recorded (both games against Rangers and other two group stage fixtures), Malmö has a -4.7 xG difference to go with a subpar 0.657 xG/90 mark.

Manager Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side is currently tied for first in its domestic league, but Malmö only has three wins in its last 10 games in all competitions.

The biggest threat to Chelsea will be Croatian forward Antonio Čolak, who leads the Swedish champions with 16 total goals.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The oddsmakers have Chelsea as the big favorite that you would expect, with the Blues entering the game at -1100 on the moneyline and -2.5 (-110) on the Asian Handicap at DraftKings as of writing.

That said, I’m targeting the total for my best bet and playing under 3.5 goals at -135 odds. If you add the combined xG in Chelsea’s last six games, the average comes out to 2.53 per match, with only one game going over 3.5 goals.

When you take that one game out against Southampton, the combined xG tally in the other five games drops to 2.02 on average.

Malmö’s matches aren’t much different, as the combined xG in the four games where it was recorded came out to 2.525 per game. In its 10 total UCL games this season, the under of 3.5 goals would have cashed in all but two of them.

It’s hard for me to bet on a Chelsea team that doesn’t seem to be blowing out bad teams, but I think there’s plenty of value on this total at Stamford Bridge.

Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-135)

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