Champions League Tuesday Preview: Will Tottenham Upset Barcelona at Camp Nou?

Dec 11, 2018 10:00 AM EST

Glyn Kirk – Getty Images. Pictured: Barcelona’s Leo Messi dribbling past Tottenham defenders

  • The group stage of the 2018-19 Champions League concludes on Tuesday and Wednesday and there are still a few spots in the knockout round to be determined.
  • In Group B, Tottenham travel to Barcelona in what's essentially a must-win match, and Spurs are +215 underdogs to pull off the upset.
  • Both spots in Group C are still up for grabs with PSG, Liverpool and Napoli all vying for No. 1 and No. 2.

Heading into the final group stage matches, there are still four spots left in the knockout round. Here are their current odds to advance:

Group B: Inter Milan (-210) or Tottenham (+160)
Group C: Two of PSG (-2500), Napoli (-150), Liverpool (-110)
Group D: Lyon (-150) or Shakhtar Donetsk (+120)

Clubs that have advanced to the knockout round are: Barcelona, Manchester City, Juventus, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, Ajax, Roma, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Dortmund, Porto, Schalke.

There’s also plenty at stake for the rest of the clubs with all eight third-place teams automatically qualifying for the Europa League tournament. With all that taken into consideration, I’ve analyzed the betting market and picked out two value plays to make for Tuesday’s matches.

 Champions League Season Record: 10-10-1 for +0.92 units

Porto at Galatasaray (12:55 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Porto +235, Galatasaray +135, Draw +230
Total: 2.5 (o-120)

Porto are the Group D winners but will be looking to stay undefeated in the group stage. Galatasaray are only playing for a spot in the Europa League as they’ve officially been eliminated from the Champions League. They enter Tuesday a point ahead of Lokomotiv Moscow for third place in Group D.

At home, Galatasaray are the small “favorites” at +135 odds and attracting more than half the betting tickets. They’ll have plenty of motivation to get the win and could be facing a weakened Porto lineup. Nevertheless, I’d be passing on this game entirely.

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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