Colombia vs. Peru Copa América Odds, Picks, Predictions, Preview: How To Bet Third-Place Game (July 9)
Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images. Pictured: Peru standout André Carrillo, right, celebrates his goal with teammate Gianluca Lapadula.
- Colombia faces Peru in the third-place match at the Copa América in Brazil.
- The Peruvians defeated the Colombians the last time these sides played, earning a 2-1 victory in the group stage.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the contest below and explains why he thinks both offense will take the spotlight.
Colombia vs. Peru Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+108 / -136)|
|Day | Time||Friday | 8 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FS2 | UniMás | fuboTV|
|Odds updated Thursday night via DraftKings.|
There has long been the discussion about the purpose of third-place matches at international soccer tournaments. Whatever the competition, including the World Cup, I personally don’t understand why they take place.
Well, we get the latest “bronze-medal” game on Friday when Colombia and Peru square off for the second time at the Copa América showcase at Estádio Nacional de Brasília in Brazil’s federal capital.
Colombia, which suffered a shootout loss against Lionel Messi and Argentina in their semifinal tussle, look to snap a five-game winless streak to close out its competition.
On the other side, Peru endured a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Brazil in the other semifinal. The Peruvians, who picked up a 2-1 victory over Colombia in the group stage, are looking for their third win of the South American event.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see where the betting value sits.
Colombia Hoping to Close Out Mediocre Tournament
Sure, Colombia took heavily favored Argentina to penalties before bowing out against the region’s powerhouse. However, when you look deeper into their performances over the course of the competition, they’ve been nothing to write home about.
The Colombians are 1-2-3 (W-L-D) and have only scored four goals in their six fixtures thus far. In terms of advanced metrics, they’ve done pretty well. Colombia has won the battle of expected goals in four of those games, but simply can’t match those numbers with their actual goals.
So, I’d be willing to forgive the Colombian side if they struggled to score one time out. Unfortunately, that’s not the case and those woes have become the norm for an offense that’s generated 0.7 xG or less in four contests.
Upstart Peru Proving It Belongs Among Region’s Best
Win or lose its latest confrontation with Colombia, this has been a solid tournament for Peru if you take away the bookend defeats against Brazil, with the latter being a 1-0 shutout that kept them from the title game.
The Peruvians, led by André Carrillo and Gianluca Lapadula, have racked up eight goals thus far. The only games they were blanked in came against Brazil, combining for 2.0 xG against the finalists, according to FBref.com.
When it comes to the xG numbers, Peru has been on the wrong side of the box score in that category five times in six games. The only match it held the edge came in a 1-0 win over Venezuela in group play, where it finished with a 1.7-0.8 xG advantage.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Outside of the Olympic Games, I’ve never understood the point of a third-place match in global soccer tournaments. For me, they make little to no sense. Mentally, I’m not sure how you get up for this kind of game, especially after having your title hopes crushed after getting so close to a championship berth.
That said, I’m expecting Colombia and Peru to throw all caution to the wind and go after the victory, even if the most the winner gets out of this meeting is some minor — yet temporary — continental bragging rights.
Although Peru earned a 2-1 win over Colombia the first time these sides met, I’m still not sure which country actually has the advantage in this affair. For that reason, I’m going to back both sides to score at -109 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. They both found the back of the net before, so I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t in this spot.
Bottom line, let’s hope these nations come out with nothing but a win on their respective minds and deliver an entertaining Copa América showdown.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-109)