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Croatia vs Morocco Odds, Expert Pick: World Cup Third-Place Game Shows Value on Over/Under

Croatia vs Morocco Odds, Expert Pick: World Cup Third-Place Game Shows Value on Over/Under article feature image
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Richard Sellers/Getty. Pictured: Luka Modric.

  • Croatia and Morocco square off in the World Cup third-place game.
  • Where does the betting value lie in the unique fixture?
  • Brett Pund delivers his prediction and best bet.

Croatia vs. Morocco Odds

Saturday, Dec. 17
10 a.m. ET
FOX
Croatia Odds +130
Morocco Odds +210
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-134 / +100)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest World Cup odds here.

After starting the World Cup against each other, Croatia and Morocco meet once again in the third-place playoff at Khalifa International Stadium on Saturday.

The first match ended in a goalless draw before both sides were able to pick up the needed results to advance out of Group F.

Morocco then became the first African nation to make it to the semifinals of a World Cup. Meanwhile, the Blazers made their second straight run to the final four of the global competition.

There may not be much to play for in this game, but I do think we should see goals in an entertaining affair.

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Croatia Seeing 2018 Similarities

Croatia’s 2018 campaign ended with a loss to the tournament champions, and it might happen again following their loss against Argentina.

Regardless of this result, these last two World Cups have been very successful under manager Zlatko Dalić, and this deep run was once again filled with great upsets.

The Blazers finished second in the group behind Morocco before knocking out tournament favorite Brazil in penalty kicks.

One big question for Dalić will be if he opts to rest superstar midfielder Luka Modrić or if he gives him one last chance to shine his light on the world stage.

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Morocco Unlikely to Lower Intensity

The road to the semifinals was a magical one for Morocco, and you have to think they will be all-in on trying to win this match.

After topping a group that had Croatia and Belgium, the Moroccans were heavy underdogs against Spain in the round of 16. However, they outlasted the Spaniards to set up a game against Portugal.

A Youssef En-Nesyri first-half goal would move the CAF nation into the semifinals, but they were not able to overcome a talented France side.

Before the defeat to the French, manager Walid Regragui’s team had the best defense in the competition, only allowing one goal through the group stage and two knockout rounds. Defense is what has made this surprising run possible.

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Croatia vs. Morocco Pick

When you look at this game over at bet365, Croatia are listed as the moneyline favorite at +130, while the total is set at 2.5 goals.

These two teams didn’t register a goal in the first meeting, but there are historical trends in this third-place playoff to suggest that likely won’t happen again.

My best bet is for this match to fly over the total of 2.5 at -110.

Because of how grueling and taxing a deep run in the World Cup can be, this match is typically one where you see managers rotate their squads and allow the bench players to pick up caps in a World Cup. This will likely be the case here as well.

Due to the changes, this fixture usually plays out like a preseason friendly with a lot of goals. In the last 11 World Cups, this same bet would have cashed in 10 of the third-place games, with both teams scoring in eight of those meetings.

Over this same stretch, only one game finished with less than three goals, which means you can reasonably chase a higher total of 3 at +150 as well.

Make sure to check the lineups first, but if you see backup defenders for both teams, this should be a great game for goals.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

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