Euro 2024 Futures Picks, Including Germany, Switzerland & Alvaro Morata
BJ Cunningham, Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured: Alvaro Morata.
The Euros are finally here and over the next month it will be wall-to-wall football to decide who is the best team in Europe. In this article I lay out all of my favorite futures for the tournament from outrights to Golden Boot to most assists and so much more, including some tasty plays on Germany and Alvaro Morata.
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Here are my Euro 2024 futures picks.
Germany to Win the Euros (+550 via bet365)
To start, Nagelsmann has always been a build out of the back, possession-dominant type of manager and he does it successfully by interchanging between a 2-3-5, 3-2-5 and 3-1-6 build up structure depending on the type of team they are facing out of possession. He’s always put a premium on dominating and overloading the middle of the pitch and with the personnel he has in the midfield it’s fascinating to see how teams will actually slow Germany down.
The problem that has existed for Germany for a long time is they haven’t had a consistent striker up top. With Nagelsmann at the helm he’s probably going to play Havertz up top, which gives Germany another deep lying playmaker in build up, and if you’ve watched Arsenal at all, you’ve seen not only how comfortable Havertz is in this role, but how well he plays in it.
If we are being honest, there isn’t a better tactical manager in this tournament than Nagelsmann and he has all of the pieces and has already implemented a lot of his in possession tactics that made him so successful at Bayern and RB Leipzig.
Because of the failures in recent tournaments, I believe the price on Germany has been suppressed too much. Taking into account home field advantage, the manager and the path to the final, they should be the same price as both France and England to win the Euros.
Germany & Switzerland Dual Forecast (+125 via FanDuel)
Germany are big favorites to win Group A and are massive favorites to win their first two matches against Scotland and Hungary. It would take a pretty big collapse for them not to get six points from those two matches.
Switzerland’s underlying numbers from qualifying were second best of anyone if we are purely going by expected goal differential (+2 per 90 minutes). You can discredit them and say they were put in an easy qualifying group, but you also have to take a step back and give them credit for creating over two expected goals in nine of their 10 qualifying matches.
The core of this Switzerland team is the same from the last Euros and World Cup, they have a really good tactical plan under Murat Yakin.
The Swiss have maybe the best midfielder in this entire group in Granit Xhaka, who is their most important player without a doubt. He’s coming off the best season of his career winning the domestic double with Leverkusen and is the conductor of the Swiss attack.
They have really good center back options in Manuel Akanji, Fabian Schär and Nico Elvedi, who have all played with the national team for a long time and are playing at top level clubs. Whether they decide to go with Yann Sommer or Gregor Kobel, the Swiss will have one of the best goalkeepers in this tournament as well.
Hungary to Finish Bottom of Group A (+160 via DraftKings)
Hungary really weren't that impressive during qualifying and in their two matches against Serbia they got outplayed, but ended up on the right side of variance.
They have little to no talent in their back line, they are completely reliant on Dominik Szoboszlai to everything for them when they are in possession and when they reach the final third things tend to fall apart so they settle for a shot from outside the box or a cross.
Perhaps the biggest red flag for Hungary is their ability to defend set pieces. They allowed the seventh-most shots per set piece in the Euro field and it’s where a good chunk of the big scoring chances they allowed came from. Serbia scored once and hit the post three times against them in qualifying. Hungary are 20th in aerial dual win rate, so set pieces are going to be a problem for them, especially against the teams they have to face in this group.
This bet is likely going to come down to their final match against Scotland, who can exploit their main two weaknesses defensively.
I have Scotland projected as a slight +143 favorite over Hungary in the final match, so I do not agree with Hungary being priced to finish third in this group and like the value on them to finish bottom at +160.
Austria to Advance (-110 via bet365)
Austria are a really good in-possession side from build up situations, but most importantly they are also a really good transition side that likes to utilize their ability out of possession, creating high turnovers to create easy direct counterattacking opportunities.
When in transition, they like to get the ball out wide to create opportunities via cutbacks or crosses to the far post. They were top eight in accurate crosses per 90 minutes in the Euro field, while also having the sixth-most counterattack shots.
Because of their ability both from build up situations and attacking in transition, Austria averaged 2.05 xG per 90 minutes and averaged the fourth-most shots per 90 minutes during qualifying. They have a pretty decent striker as well in Michael Gregoritsch, who averaged over four shots per 90 minutes in qualifying and is coming off a productive season with Freiburg, putting up a 0.57 npxG per 90-minute scoring rate.
Because they are without David Alaba and Xaver Schlager, Austria are getting underpriced when they are one of the better out of possession sides in this tournament.
The price of -110 to simply just advance out of this group is far too short for how good this team is playing under Rangnick’s system.
Romania to NOT Advance (+125 via FanDuel)
Romania are not aesthetically pleasing on the eye. In their two matches against Switzerland, they relied on a few counterattacks and took advantage of them, but otherwise they really struggled to even get the ball into the final third.
They mainly rely on transition moments to create chances, as they did average the most counterattacking shots per 90 minutes throughout qualifying, but against the better teams those shots weren’t of much quality.
When they play teams that are passive defensively, their passing and ball circulation is incredibly slow and usually ends up with some type of long ball up to the striker. They did average 1.45 xG per 90 minutes during qualifying, but in two matches against Switzerland they created a total of 0.79 expected goals.
This bet will most likely come down to their final match against Slovakia, which is currently lined as a straight pick’em on FanDuel. So, there is no reason why Slovakia should be a significant favorite not to advance comparatively to Romania.
In addition, since the Euro field has expanded and four third place teams go through to the round of 16, it takes three points and close to a positive goal differential to get through. Romania are likely going to have a negative goal differential going into their final match with one of the least talented attacks in the tournament.
Czech Republic to Advance (-137 via Bet365) & Over 4.5 Tournament Goals (+110 via Bet365)
When the Czech Republic build out of the back, they do so in a 3-2-5 shape with the two midfielders dropping deep, but there is a lot of space in between those to midfielders and the last line of five. That is by design because the Czech Republic like to utilize a lot of long balls and will often try to create passing triangles out wide to create a chance via a cross.
Of the teams in the Euro field, the Czech Republic had the most accurate crosses per 90 minutes of anyone. They did that without their best player Patrik Schick, who battled a groin injury for the entire year of 2023 and didn’t play a single minute during qualifying.
The Bayer Leverkusen striker scored five goals at the previous Euros and is a big time aerial threat for a side that was fourth in qualifying in aerial dual win rate. Even in his limited playing time for Leverkusen he still had a 0.53 npxG per 90 minute scoring rate, so he will be a massive boost to this Czech side that still averaged 1.91 xG per 90 minutes throughout qualifying.
Czech Republic are significant favorites over Georgia in their second match, which gives them a better shot at getting three points than most third place teams do, but it’s also not out of the realm of possibility that they finish second in this group as well.
In addition to advancing, I have them projected for 4.9 goals in the group stage, so I like the value on their total goals going over 4.5 at +110.
Romelu Lukaku Top Goalscorer (+2000 via DraftKings) & to be Belgium’s Top Goalscorer (+120 via ESPNBet)
Romelu Lukaku led all goal scorers in qualifying scoring 14 goals in only 6.6 90s, but he was also getting elite shot production, averaging 4.4 shots per 90 minutes as well.
Football can be a simple game sometimes and from watching Belgium during qualifying, the ultimate goal is to get the ball to Romelu Lukaku in a goal scoring position. Oftentimes because Tadesco has three or four player occupying space in the middle when they get to the opponent's final third to first try and create an overload, but they are also looking for through balls to Lukaku to make runs off the opponent's back line or get him 1 v 1 pinned on a center back in the half space.
He is going to get the easiest group in terms of defenses as well. Based on expected goals allowed during qualifying, Romania were 17th, Slovakia were 24th and Ukraine were 19th.
History has shown that five or six goals usually wins the Golden Boot, so with him being in an easy group and Belgium having a decent path to get to the quarterfinals, he’ll have a great opportunity to score a ton of goals.
In addition, his price to be Belgium’s top goalscorer is awfully short because he is the main focal point of the attack and averaged 1.4 shots per 90 minutes more than the next closest starter.
Alvaro Morata Top Goalscorer (+3300 via bet365)
Since Fernando Torres, the Spanish National Team has not found an elite striker that can replace Alvaro Morata. Joselu will be his backup in certain situations, but Morata is undervalued at 33/1.
Morata continues to start because he is one the most tactically astute strikers in world football with his ability to not only find space, but also create space for others because of his positioning.
He’s going to start up top for an offense that averaged 2.51 xG per 90 minutes and also averaged 17.8 shots per 90 minutes. Both of those are top three in the Euro field. He was getting really good shot production for Spain in qualifying, averaging 3.54 shots per 90 minutes, which was the most on the team for anyone that played over five matches.
What often happens with Spain is teams cut them off from playing centrally, so they are forced to send in crosses from the half space. Morata is a great threat in the air, winning over 57% of his aerial duels over the last two seasons.
With Morata fitting perfectly into Spain’s system and being the main striker for a top three offense, there is a lot of value on him at 33/1.
Scott McTominay to be Scotland’s Top Goalscorer (+600 via FanDuel)
Scott McTominay not only led Scotland in qualifying with seven goals, but he also led the team averaging 2.7 shots per 90. The reason for that is Scotland are a cross heavy team that mainly rely on transition breaks with a lot of cutbacks into the box, which is where McTominay thrives as a box crashing midfielder.
In addition to that, Scotland are pretty reliant on set pieces and McTominay is a massive threat on them because he has a 58% aerial dual win rate over his career with Manchester United and they get to play the worst set piece defense in this tournament in their final match against Hungary.
Lyndon Dykes, their main striker, got ruled out for the tournament, so it’ll be Che Adams up top. He has historically not played well in Scotland’s transition based system. So, there’s a lot of value on McTominay at +600.
Ruben Vargas Switzerland Top Goalscorer (+1200 via bet365)
There is a real question as to who is going to be the main striker for Switzerland. Zeki Amdouni was the main man during qualifying, but his form has severely dropped off over the second half for Burnley and he barely played down the stretch. Noah Okafor started only six matches for AC Milan in Serie A, as he was mainly used as a sub, which has been the case for most of qualifying with Switzerland. Breel Embolo, who has been the main striker for Switzerland in their last two major international tournaments, recently came off a nine month injury in May.
So, I think there is a world where Murat Yakin interchanges his three main strikers throughout the tournament, which is going to limit their opportunities to score. Ruben Vargas is going start at left wing and has great goalscoring capabilities. He’s a great 1 v 1 ball carrier to create his own shot, he’s great at finding space on the back post and he averaged 2.9 shots per 90 minutes throughout qualifying, which was third on the team.
With the striker position in question, I think there is a lot of value on Vargas at 12/1.
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Turkey Top Goalscorer (+1100 via bet365)
Aktürkoğlu is a unique attacking player in the fact that he can play a number of different roles, but he’s a big focal point of the Turkish attack as one of their main attacking midfielders. During qualifying, he was the only guy to play in all eight matches and averaged 2.6 shots per 90 minutes. In addition, he also led the team in shots on target.
Turkey doesn’t really have an established striker playing up top, so the goal scoring and shots are spread out throughout the team. Aktürkoğlu thrives in the half spaces and in transition.
He’s coming off an outstanding season at Galatasaray where he scored 12 goals in the Turkish Super Lig and two in the Champions League from the midfield.
They are likely going to play very direct in both matches against the Czech Republic and Portugal, which will give him ample opportunities to crash the box and get on the end of through balls or crosses.
So, I think there is a lot of value on Aktürkoğlu at 11/1 with Turkey not having an established striker.
Rasmus Hojlund Premier League Top Goalscorer (+800 via bet365)
There are a lot of England players priced above Hojlund, but none of them are even the main focal point of the attack. Both Bellingham and Foden barely could average one shot per 90 minutes throughout qualifying and most of Saka’s shots, although he did average over three shots per 90 minutes, came from outside the box. Harry Kane is the focal point of the England attack and he’s going to be on penalties so those three guys are limited in their opportunities to score multiple goals.
Even though Havertz is going to start up top for Germany he’s playing in a very fluid build up system that requires him to drop deep at times and interchange with all of their other attackers. Plus, his finishing ability for Arsenal was pretty average if we’re all being honest.
Hojlund is the focal point of the Danish attack and he is what they’ve needed for a long time. He really improved over the second half of the season for Manchester United, scoring 11 goals over their last 20 matches. For Denmark, he led them in qualifying with seven goals, but he also averaged 3.5 shots per 90 minutes.
Denmark faced Slovenia again (faced them twice in qualifying, Hojlund scored in the only match he played) and Serbia, who is going to make the match open and transitional, which is where Hojlund thrives.
Croatia Under 5.5 goals (-125 via bet365)
While Croatia do have a great three-man midfield with Modric, Kovacic, and Brozovic, there are problems when they enter the final third. They averaged well over two expected goals per 90 minutes throughout qualifying, but that was mainly because of the 10.9 expected goals they created in their four matches against Armenia and Latvia.
Their match at home against Turkey is a good example of the limitations they have in their attack. They lack an above average striker up top with Budmir and Kramaric both now at the age of 32 and putting up average goal scoring numbers for their respective club sides. What tends to happen is they try to get the ball out wide and create a chance via a cross or simply settle for a shot outside the box. Crosses were generally not successful for them because they were 12th in cross completion rate and 21st in aerial duel win rate.
They are going to play three really good defensive sides that are hard to build through and they don’t have the transitional abilities anymore to punish teams, so they are really stuck offensively and I am not sure how they consistently create chances.
I have them projected for 2.98 goals in their three group stage matches, so I think this total is way to high unless they make another deep run in this tournament, which is highly unlikely.
Antoine Griezmann Most Assists (+1800 via FanDuel)
Griezmann’s role with the French National Team is a unique one. He’s given the freedom to roam all around the pitch to either find pockets of space in between the lines or pull defenders out of position. During qualifying, he mainly operated in the right half space, but when France got in trouble he moved over into the left half space, which is where he played for a majority of the World Cup. In their recent friendly against Luxembourg, Griezmann was operating in the left half space, so it looks like that is where he will be for the Euros.
Not surprisingly, France have a left side bias when they get to the opponent's final third because that is where Kylian Mbappe is. At the World Cup Griezmann had 19 passes that led to a shot, which was the third-most of anyone in the entire tournament and also led the tournament with 3.6 expected assists.
Mbappe is the favorite to win the Golden Boot and if he’s going to win it, it’s going to be because of either Antoine Griezmann or Theo Hernandez feeding him.
Theo Hernandez Most Assists (+6600 via bet365)
Theo Hernandez is one of the best progressive left backs in the entire world and he thrives in the French National Team because he gets to play and combine with the best player in the world.
As I already mentioned, France have a left side bias to try to get the ball to Kylian Mbappe. Theo Hernandez will typically push up and overlap or combine with him to create space, which a lot of teams have had difficulties defending. At the World Cup, Theo Hernandez had two assists, and he also had the fourth most passes that led to a shot with most of them going to Mbappe.
Mykhailo Mudryk Most Assists (+20000 via bet365)
Now this is a fun longshot. Mudryk’s form and production at Chelsea has been mixed over the years, but he’s been awesome for the Ukrainian National Team.
His role with Ukraine is not that of goalscorer, rather he's a creator. They are always looking to get him the ball to have him dribble past opponents or utilize his pace to get in behind defenders down the left side of the pitch. From there, he typically isn’t someone that consistently cuts inside to create his shot. Especially now that Ukraine have a prolific finisher in Dovbyk, he’s usually looking for cutback crosses to him for easy tap ins.
Ukraine are in the easiest group with Belgium, Slovakia and Romania. All three of those teams have have very poor defending right backs who will have to go 1 v 1 with Mudryk. This is particularly true for Belgium, who consistently invert their right back Castagne into the midfield in build up and are going to allow Mudryk tons of space to operate down the left hand side.
Historically, it only takes three or four assists to be near this award, so with Ukraine having not only an easy group but a good path to the quarterfinals, there is a ton of value on Mudryk.
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