Europa League Odds, Picks, Predictions | Marseille vs Villarreal, Benfica vs Rangers
Gualtar Fatia/Getty. Pictured: Benfica celebrate a goal.
The Europa League is back for the knockout playoffs to decide who gets into the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Marseille vs Villarreal and Benfica vs Rangers.
Check out our Europa League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Europa League match, you can find them here.
Europa League Best Bets
| Marseille Odds | -110 |
| Villarreal Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
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Dabbundo: Villarreal’s total lack of ball stopping and shot prevention has been a glaring issue for them in La Liga and I expect that to carry over into the Europa League knockout stage on Thursday in southern France. Villarreal have conceded the second-most box entries, the most shots and the second-most expected goals in the Spanish top flight this season. Preventing goals on the road in Europe was an issue in the group stage as well as they allowed five goals in three away matches in a pretty weak Europa League group.
Elite shot stopping masked their defensive issues last season, but the fall off in defensive metrics is more than just a one season problem. If you take the last full calendar year, Villarreal are a bottom five defense in Spain.
Marseille have underperformed their underlying xG for the season when you combine their European and Ligue 1 minutes. The French side has some transition defense issues, but they rank second in xG per 90 in France and third in expected threat going forward.
The resurgence of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a major reason that OM have the highest average xG per shot in Ligue 1.
Even for the first leg of a two-legged knockout, this total should be north of 2.75. I’d bet over 2.5 at -130 or better.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-120 via BetRivers)
| Benfica Odds | -175 |
| Rangers Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Cunningham: Benfica matches in Europe have been pretty chaotic. They’ve allowed a relatively low amount of expected goals domestically, but during the Champions League group stage they conceded 15.9 expected goals, which was the most of anyone in the competition.
Even over their two legs against Toulouse, who are a bottom half of the table team in France, they conceded 2.5 expected goals over their two legs.
Phillipe Clement has taken over midseason for Rangers and did a masterful job leading them to winning their Europa League group over the likes of Real Betis and Sparta Prague. They were successful against both of those teams by doing something they don’t normally do in the Scottish Premier League, concede possession and play in transition.
In the four matches against those two sides they created 5.4 expected goals and are set up here to cause a lot of problems on the break against a poor Benfica transition defense that just conceded five goals to Porto over the weekend.
Rangers matches in Scotland have been a bit chaotic – averaging 3.21 expected goals – so I am expecting a very high-event type of match here in the first leg, as I have 3.29 goals projected for this match.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-135 via Caesars)
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