Europa League Odds, Picks, Predictions | Rennes vs AC Milan, Sparta Prague vs Galatasaray
Marco Canoniero/Getty. Pictured: Davide Calabria.
The Europa League is back for the knockout playoffs to decide who gets into the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Rennes vsAC Milan and Sparta Prague vs Galatasaray.
Check out our Europa League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Europa League match, you can find them here.
Europa League Best Bets
| Rennes Odds | +160 |
| AC Milan Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -112 |
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Dabbundo: A week after Milan thrashed Rennes in Italy and took a commanding 3-0 lead, they’ll wrap up the tie in northwest France. The total is set at the exact same price as last week, but Milan have much less incentive to score and produce much of an attack. Milan prefer to be much more passive in and out of possession when given the opportunity, and a three-goal aggregate lead is an ideal spot for them to do that.
Milan scored two of their three goals on headers from crosses after establishing their territorial control with deep possession. The third goal came off a high turnover of possession. Milan aren't necessarily going to come out and defend in a low block, but I’d expect Rennes to have considerably more control of this match than the first leg.
Both of Milan’s fullbacks had 10+ touches in the attacking and final third last week. Both were key in the first two goals, and I’d expect neither to be in as many attacking sequences in this match. Given how little the midfielders get forward under Stefano Pioli, the attack will rest at the feet of Rafael Leão in transition.
The attack in the first leg for Rennes often broke down outside the penalty area, and they were forced to settle for 12 low quality shots that totaled just 0.8 xG. When they’re not giving away penalties, Milan are generally effective at limiting high quality chances. Rennes might win this match but the total should be lower for the second leg given that Milan hold such a big aggregate lead.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
| Sparta Prague Odds | +150 |
| Galatasaray Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Cunningham: The first leg between these two was complete chaos. Galatasaray scored early, but after that point Sparta Prague took it to them and the xG going into halftime was 1.15 to 0.30 in favor of Prague. They got the equalizer right out of halftime and after that it was end to end for the remainder of the match.
It was exactly what Galatasaray wanted because they thrive in chaotic back and forth matches. The Turkish champion's matches domestically are averaging 3.22 expected goals and it's because they want quick transitions and to use vertical passes to play balls in behind the opponents back line. They did this with a lot of success during the Champions League group stage, creating a whopping 9.8 expected goals in their three matches, including two performances where they created over 2.5 expected goals against Manchester United and Bayern Munich.
Sparta Prague showed in the first leg that they have the talent to be really dangerous on the break. There were numerous times where Galatasaray would try to overload the last line of the defense and once Sparta Prague won the ball they had advantages in transition, which is similar to how Copenhagen had so much success against Galatasaray.
Their matches this year have also been pretty high event, averaging 3.13 expected goals in the Czech first division. They typically play out of a 3-4-3 and like to use width to attack and create chances via crosses. They were incredibly successful at doing this during the Europa League group stage, as they led the competition in aerial duals won and will be able to continue to cause problems for Galatasaray, who will be without their best defender Victor Nelsson.
I have 3.53 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (+105 via bet365)
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