Europa League Odds, Picks, Predictions | West Ham vs Freiburg & Rangers vs Benfica
Pictured: Lukasz Fabianski. (Photo by Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)
The Europa League is back for the knockout playoffs to decide who gets into the Round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including West Ham vs Freiburg and Rangers vs Benfica.
Check out our Europa League predictions below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Europa League match, you can find them here.
Europa League Best Bets
| West Ham Odds | -150 |
| Freiburg Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
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Dabbundo: These two sides were the only match of the seven played on Thursday to stay under the closing total in the first leg. I don't expect the second to play out in the same way. Freiburg head to East London protecting a one-goal lead, but the first leg was much more open and high event than the final scoreline would suggest. There were 2.9 total expected goals, and my projection states the total should be right around three yet again. With the home favorite Hammers starting the match with immediate urgency given that they are down by a goal on aggregate, the Hammers will take more chances in possession than normal. That will leave them vulnerable on the counter, as West Ham are conceding 1.75 xGA per 90 when playing from behind this season.
These are two dominant teams on set pieces in their respective leagues as well, which is a positive for the over given that neither attack is generally dynamic and free flowing from open play. The Hammers went through a brutal stretch with little scoring while their top attackers were out, but this attack continues to produce goals despite mediocre underlying process because of the quality of Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta especially. With Freiburg allowing two goals per match on average in Germany away from home, the total is low at 2.5 and I'd bet the over in this second leg.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-120 via DraftKings)
| Rangers Odds | +175 |
| Benfica Odds | +137 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Cunningham: This match got completely off the rails in the first leg in Portugal and what is surprising is the total is pretty much exactly the same.
The match ended 2-2 and there were a total of 3.7 expected goals created, but the reality was that Benfica dominated the match. The level of play in the Scottish Premier League comparatively to the that of Portugal is pretty drastically different and UEFA coefficients confirms that.
Benfica had 48 touches in Rangers penalty area, created 2.3 expected goals, and took 23 shots. While all of that is great, the problem that exists for Benfica is they are terrible in transition defense. It was a problem in the group stage when they played three transition based teams and conceded 15.9 expected goals, it was a problem in the knockout playoffs when they conceded 2.5 expected goals to Toulouse and it was a problem in the first leg against Rangers as well.
The natural feeling of these second legs with it being tied that it’s going to be cagey early on and that very well be the case, but like you saw in the first leg all it takes is one early goal to open this match right up.
Rangers are no strangers to playing chaotic matches, as their matches in the Scottish Premier League are averaging 3.1 expected goals this season.
I have 3.25 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over at -145.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-145 via Caesars)
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