France vs Poland Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview

France vs Poland Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview article feature image

Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann.

  • France are favored to beat Poland at the World Cup.
  • Will they be able to kickstart another big knockout stage run?
  • Read on for Jonathan Wright's preview and prediction.

France vs. Poland Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
10 a.m. ET
France Odds-334
Poland Odds+1000
Over/Under2.5 (-125 / +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+137 / -188)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minuteĀ World Cup odds here.

France and Poland will battle it out in the round of 16 on Sunday morning, looking to become the third team to advance to the quarterfinals, joining Netherlands and Argentina.

Les Bleus, the 2018 World Cup champions, made it to the knockout round by finishing atop Group D with two wins and a loss. They became just the second reigning World champion to advance beyond the group stage since the turn of the century.

Poland made it to this point in the tournament after narrowing out Mexico for second in Group C due to a higher goal differential. They finished with one win, a draw and a loss.

Will Poland be able to pull off the first knockout round upset and slow down Mbappe and the dynamic Les Blues attack?

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France Looking Like Themselves Again

Throwing out the Tunisia match, France have looked like one of the best teams in the tournament thus far.

Manager Didier Deschamps has done a phenomenal job bringing in new pieces to overcome their injuries, which has ultimately resulted in a far more dynamic midfield that has been able to dish out progressive passes to their front line.

France finished with the highest xG in the group stage out of every team left, despite not playing Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembele and Antoine Griezmann in their final group stage match.

The defending champions have the quality to score through long stints of possession. However, they also have one of the fastest attacks, if not the fastest, making them even more dangerous on the counter.

This forces opposing defenses to sit back and allow France to gain a rhythm through short passes in the midfield.

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Poland Need to Maintain World Class Goalkeeping

Poland are most comfortable without the ball. They averaged only 34% possession per match in the group stage (30th out of 32 teams) and have only had 14 sequences in which they have completed 10 consecutive passes. France have 55.

This strategy tends to lead to many opportunities for the opposing team due to the sheer amount of possession they accumulate in the final third. Poland allowed 6.1 xG and could be considered lucky as they only conceded two goals.

Much of that discrepancy, though, is due to the amazing form of goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny. The Poland goalie recorded 17 saves and a +3.7 post-shot xG in the group stage.


Wojciech Szczesny is singlehandedly keeping Poland's World Cup dream alive šŸ”„

ā€” ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) November 30, 2022

While they've conceded just twice, they've only scored twice, as well. The good news is Robert Lewandowski is in their lineup, and when you have someone of that quality, all he needs is half of a chance to flip the game.

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France vs. Poland Pick

Though Poland will be in their comfort zone, being on the back foot and conceding possession, they are ill-equipped to handle the pace of Mbappe and the rest of the french attackers.

Les Bleus have won all five of their round of 16 matches since it was added to the tournament back in 1986. Look for them to increase that to six quite easily.

Take France on the spread.

The Pick: France -1 (-110)

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