Girona vs Celta Vigo Prediction | Friday La Liga Picks

Friday, Oct. 27

3 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Girona Odds	-120
Celta Vigo Odds	+325
Draw	+280
Over / Under	2.5  -150 / +115

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Kicking off this weekend’s action in La Liga, Girona hosts Celta Vigo at the Estadi Montilivi, looking to continue their great start to the campaign.

The hosts come into the match in a tie for first with Real Madrid, racking up eight wins in their first 10 league games.

Meanwhile, this has not been the best of starts for the visitors, who sit in the relegation zone with just six points on only one victory.

Scoring has started to cool in the Spanish flight, but I think this is a match where we could see plenty of goals.

This has been an incredible start to the campaign for manager Michel and his squad. Fans now have to be dreaming of the possibility of seeing their club play in Europe next season.

On the season, Girona own a +4.2 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, to go along with scoring 24 goals, which is the most in La Liga.

One key to the strong start has been the play of Ukrainian striker Artem Dovbyk, who has five goals and a pair of assists in league play. This is also the same squad that 11 different players have found the back of the net.

Los Albirrojos have only lost one match against Real Madrid, but you do have to wonder how they will stack up once they face tougher competition on a consistent basis.

Over the summer, Celta decided to go in another direction at manager by bringing in veteran coach Rafael Benítez. However, not much has gone right for the former Real Madrid and Liverpool boss.

His lone win at his new club so far came at Almería, and the defensive struggles were still evident in that victory.

Benítez’s squad has failed to earn a clean sheet through 10 matches, which includes giving up multiple goals in six fixtures.

With a long career of being a strong defensive coach, you have to expect Benítez to turn this around, but he needs to do so quickly before the pressure starts to build.

Over recent years, it has usually been painful to try to cash an over in a La Liga game, but I really feel everything points to a high-scoring affair here.

So, my best bet is for the total to fly over 2.5 goals at -138, which I would bet to -145.

I touched on the issues that Celta have had defensively. However, this is a side that has also put up decent attacking numbers on the road.

Away from home, Benítez’s team is sixth in La Liga in big chances created per match (2.25). Meanwhile, Vigo have scored in all of those fixtures, which includes games at Real Sociedad and Barcelona.

The combination of a leaky defense with a solid attack is the reason why this same bet has cashed in 3-of-4 road games.

As for the hosts, Girona are averaging 1.82 xG and 3.8 big scoring chances at home, which are both in the top five. Michel’s team is also in the bottom five in big chances allowed at home this season.

Once you add in the fact that seven of 10 Girona games have gone over this total, I really like the chances of seeing goals on Friday night.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-138, bet to -145)

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