Juventus vs. AC Milan Odds, Picks, Prediction: Visitors Have Value in Serie A Showdown (Sept. 19)
Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Brahim Diaz.
Juventus vs. Milan Odds
|AC Milan Odds||+275|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115/ -105)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+ | CBS Sports Network | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
The highest-profile matchup of the Serie A season so far takes place on Sunday in Turin, where Juventus will look to get their season going against AC Milan.
The Bianconeri find themselves 16th in the Italian top flight through three games, the last two of which they have lost without Cristiano Ronaldo. AC Milan, meanwhile, are tied on points atop the table with Roma and Napoli. Stefano Pioli’s team is off to a hot start for the second straight season.
Let’s break down this matchup a little more to find value for bettors.
Juve Struggling Early Without Ronaldo
It looked like last week was going to be the season-altering result Juventus needed. They were up 1-0 at halftime in Naples but couldn’t hold off an onslaught of chances and conceded twice en route to a defeat in the second half. Napoli registered 25 shots for the game for 2.19 expected goals (xG).
Obviously, life without Ronaldo was always going to be different initially. The Portuguese superstar’s presence alone demands the ball, and his clinical finishing saved Juventus on many occasions.
This iteration of Juventus now belongs to Paulo Dybala going forward. The Argentine forward is going to be the focal point in attack and will be supported primarily by Alvaro Morata, who you don’t usually associate the word “clinical” with.
The xG numbers do indicate that Juventus are going to get better. They have a +0.26 non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) through three games, during which they’ve scored three times but registered 4.87 xG.
There are also chances coming from midfield. Manuel Locatelli has 0.78 xG in just 115 minutes this season, and there are other midfield players like Aaron Ramsey and Weston McKennie who have a penchant for finding a goal.
AC Milan Not Short on Attacking Options
The biggest question mark for the Rossoneri entering this matchup is the status of striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who missed their 3-2 Champions League loss against Liverpool on Wednesday. The Swedish enigma is hoping to be fit and will likely be replaced in the team by Olivier Giroud if he’s not.
The Milan attack this season has been led by Giroud (two goals), as well as younger duo Rafael Leao and Brahim Diaz.
Leao looks like a young Thierry Henry striding down the left wing at times. He’s netted twice this season through three Serie A games and has all the potential in the world. Playing with either Giroud or Ibrahimovic, two center forwards who keep the ball very well, will do wonders for him.
Diaz, meanwhile, stepped up late last season and is still going. He has a goal and assist in the league this season and even netted at Anfield.
The biggest concern for Milan is in midfield, where I’m not sure they have the quality to keep enough possession to really establish themselves in a game like this away from home. They certainly didn’t against Liverpool, who dominated the game despite conceding twice late in the first half.
Milan are coming off an extremely impressive win in Serie A over Lazio, who looked good under Maurizio Sarri before heading to the San Siro. The Rossoneri won 2-0 and dominated the xG, 3.48-0.25.
Even if Juventus dominate the ball, Milan are more than capable of holding their own by staying compact at the back, where they have impressive stability across the defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Juventus are going to bounce back this season, but I really like Milan here.
They’re thriving in domestic play right now and are decent value for their undefeated record, even though their NPxGD isn’t as good as their actual goal difference. It’s good enough that I’m happy to back Milan, since they’re the team that’s actually getting results.
You can bet Milan +0.5 at DraftKings or the result as Milan/Draw at PointsBet, both around -130 odds.
Pick: Milan +0.5 (+130)